Weekend Picks: November 6 - November 9

It’s a new week and I'm determined to get better. I am not touching ND-BC with a ten foot pole. That game is going to be stressful enough.

Five games and a parlay:

- Boise State -34.5 vs. Utah State - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: This is a huge number (even up 3 pts from the opening line), but I'm betting the blue turf until the well runs dry.

- Texas -27 vs. Baylor - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: UT bounces back and blows out Baylor.

- Missouri -27 vs. Kansas Sate - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: KSU has a lame-duck head coach and allowed Kansas to stomp them last week. To quote Bill Murray from Space Jam, "Defense? I don't play defense."

- UVA +3.5 at Wake Forest - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Groh's boys are playing great football recently, while Wake Forest has not looked good since their big win versus FSU. By the way, the over/under on this game is 39!

- ASU -14.5 at Washington - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Speaking of lame-duck coaches, Washington cannot score and cannot play defense.

- Fun Pick of the Week - 5 Game Parlay ($5)
Minnesota -7.5 vs. Michigan
WVU -7 vs. Cincinnati
BYU -36.5 vs. San Diego St.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska
Washington St. +41 vs. Arizona

Selections

Here's what I'm looking at this week in D1 games and the NFL's Thursday night game, betting a fictional 108 units total:

DEN +3 vs. CLE (20 units to win 20 - even on Bodog)

Utah +2.5 vs. TCU (11 units to win 10)

Boise -35 vs. Utah St. (11 units - 10)

Kansas pick vs. Nebraska (16.5 units - 15)

Penn St. -7.5 vs. Iowa (22 units - 20) - Most confident pick of the week

Arizona St -14.5 vs. Washington (11 units -10)

Texas Tech -3 vs. OK St. (11 units - 10)

San Jose St -7 vs. La Tech (5.5 units - 5)

I will keep track of my record and my +/- unit record from here on out since I didn't think to do this last week.

New note - since Bill is putting his payouts up and accounting for the book's take, I will too.

See comments for picks added with Thursday night's fictional winnings.

2-for-5 and a little about number 10

I did say to take the points and UB on Tuesday night. A 20-point win later and I save a little face.

I'll have my "suggestions" on betting the weekend's games later in the week.

As for Quinn, I have been a very big Brady Quinn supporter ever since the Browns made the proactive move to get back into the 2007 first round and select him. I think he's going to be very good, based on his college stats and his experience in college. It's a very good predictor -- number of starts by quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

Look at other college QBs who had over 40 starts -- Manning, Palmer, Rivers, Brees, McNabb -- and their success rate is much more likely. If you look at the QBs without that many starts -- Russell, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Tim Couch -- and the success rate decreases. Granted, this wasn't a scientific study looking at all first-round QBs in the last 10 years, but I think my point is made.

For a little more in-depth look at college experience/success for pro success, here's an article from the Cleveland newspaper. The data is in the last few notes.

Mighty Quinn

I'm sure our resident Browns fan will have something to add to this based on his insider's perspective, but I'm really wondering about this switch to Brady by the Browns for this game.  Quinn will pretty much get one practice as the starting QB to prepare for Denver.  That's really not a lot of time to prepare as the starter for your first career regular season start.  On the bright side for Quinn, he gets to play at home against the Broncos defense.

Considering Champ Bailey and Boss Bailey are out for the season, Williams is out for the game with a knee injury and the Denver defense has been pretty consistently gashed the entire season - short of playing the Raiders or Chiefs, Quinn has a good team to start against.  I can also see the problem that the Browns need to pick a QB, Anderson's averages over the last 16 games (eight this year, eight last year) are sub-par at best and if somehow Anderson has a good game against a bad Broncos team - it makes it look worse to replace him for next week.

So what do we know for certain?  If Quinn is going to be successful though, he's going to need more help than Anderson was getting.  Edwards needs to stop dropping the ball and the rest of the offense needs to pitch in.   I think it's also fair to say that Anderson is paid too much to be a backup and he'll need to get moved to another team, especially because if Quinn takes 55% of the snaps over the next two years (likely 50% for this year+potential starter for next year) his contract incentives are going to kick in.  Last point, this Broncos/Browns game really lacks the appeal of the rivalry from the days of John Elway and Bernie Kosar.  Games that saw "The Drive" and "The Fumble" were epic and instead our Thursday night entertainment will consist of two underperforming teams battling to be .500 in the standings.

Pick Success

Blozar - goes 1 for 4 and then loses his bonus parlay

Chuck - (sports only) goes 3 for 4 and then 0 for 2 on his bonus parlays

Bill - pretty much goes for broke

I think the market is even offering a better rate of return than Blozar and Bill right now.  

Weekend Recap: October 30 - November 2

Last weekend started bad and ended bad. Here is the breakdown of how it went down. I'll come out with next week's picks on Wednesday.

1) South Florida -3 at Cincinnati - LOSS - Down $20

Cincinnati 24, USF 10 - I watched the first half and the 4th quarter. Matt Grothe is one of the most frustrating players to watch. I'm going to compare him to Reggie Ball, formerly of Georgia Tech. He has some talent (probably more than Ball), but is very inconsistent and makes a lot of bad decisions. Grothe is going down that path just like Ball, where he could start for 4 years and end his career as a disappointment. His "Gro-hawk" is also annoying.

On the other side of the ball, Cincy had a one armed quarterback and beat up on a USF defense that should have played better.

2) Navy -7.5 vs. Temple - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $40 Cumulative)

Navy 33, Temple 27 - I didn't see any of this game, just the scoreboard flash. Navy came all the way back to win after Temple (with a top 120 offense) took a huge lead into the 4th quarter.

When a 7.5 spread like this goes to OT, you can only hope for it go 3 OTs, have Navy get the ball first in the 3rd, score a TD, convert the required 2 pointer, and then stop Temple, resulting in an 8 pt victory. It obviously didn't get that far.

In related Navy news, I received an email yesterday offering a chance to purchase tickets to the EagleBank (yes, its one word) Bowl. Ahh, the perks of being Blue and Gold member.

3) Georgia +5.5 vs. Florida - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $60 Cumulative)

Florida 49, Georgia 10 - I was flipping between this game and the ND-Pitt game. Its 14-3 at Halftime and Florida starts with the ball. The Georgia defense responds by forcing a punt. The Bulldogs start a nice little drive, then the wheels completely fall off. Thinking back, this was a really bad pick on my part.

4) Boise St -20.5 at NMSU - WIN - Up $18.18 (Down $41.82 Cumulative)

Boise St. 49, NMSU 0 - Don't be shocked if I come back to the Broncos again next week.

5) Tulsa -7 at Arkansas - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $61.82 Cumulative)

Arkansas 30, Tulsa 23 - This was a late pick that didn't make it into the post. I should've stayed away. Tulsa has now proven itself to be an overrated fraud.

Bonus Parlay Pick - LOSS - Down $5 (Down $65.82 Cumulative)
This sucked because I lost the parlay on Thursday night. With bets like this, you are just looking to get to game 5 with a chance. Of the 8 games picked, I was 3-5 (winning Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas).

Overall: Last weekend was poor. Of the $105 bet, I'm left with $39.18 (down 63%), which is a worse performance than the Dow. This week's picks will be out Wednesday night. There are some decent games out there (Boise -31.5?), so I'm hoping to bounce back.

BCS Projections

A lot of time for this to play out as we can look at all the scenarios, but the Big XII and SEC will have its own mini-playoff.

Once again, it's if the season ends today, not projecting it out. The winner of the Utah-TCU will have the inside track for that last spot.

National Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: Maryland vs. West Virginia


Also, I'm working on FULL bowl projections, but this is a big project. I'm trying to figure out all the tie-ins.