First off, after the Syracuse game, I would have been first in line to say that we should keep Charlie no matter what happened against USC. However, after that crapfest, I still think the smart move is keeping him, but I wouldn't be upset if we didn't. When an "offensive genius" provides a "strategic advantage" that results in our first first down on the last play of the 3rd quarter, there's an issue. On the other hand, this team is MUCH better than the one that was on the field last season. That said, now we get to get blasted by Oregon State again in the Sun Bowl!
As for the BCS, why have the system if bowls other than the Championship can do whatever the hell they want? Why should a boring Ohio State get picked ahead of an exciting, undefeated, and higher BCS ranked Boise State? You're telling me Boise in another BCS bowl wouldn't be the highest rated game of the year? Imagine if Missouri beat Oklahoma. A Boise vs. Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl rematch would draw more viewers than anything outside of the Super Bowl and American Idol. The only BCS game casual fans across the nation are going to watch is one that involves Boise State, especially since Ian Johnson is still there. Who can't think of their mom wanting to watch the guy who proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend on the sideline after making the winning play?
Along those lines, I have a name to put up for the potential ND coach discussion since I'm not too excited about the Cincy guy. The best coach ND could hire right now would be Coach Pete from Boise State. No, this isn't a strictly homer pick, especially since it would probably set Boise back 5 years. Here's a few reasons why I think Coach Pete would be the best fit:
1) Like Boise, ND can't recruit everyone you'd want to because of academics. At Boise, Pete recruits people that fit in the system, and at ND he could do the same, only instead of getting 2 and 3 star guys (3 star baby!) and making them work, he could get 4 and 5 star guys that were made for his system. Instead of settling for smart QBs with a weak arms who make up for their deficiencies with intangibles like every Boise QB of recent vintage, he can get the Jimmy Clausens of the world that seem to have it all.
2) Because of Charlie's recruiting, ND almost has too many skill people to play them all the next couple of years. The beauty of the Boise system is that if you are good enough, you will play, as almost all playable skill position players play similar amounts.
3) Coach Pete knows how to handle expectations (although admittedly not ND-level). Boise is expected to win 11 games+ every year, and they do it. Anyone who watched the Fiesta Bowl knows that Coach Pete pulls out whatever it takes to win, and he does this each and every game. What is Cincy ever expected to win?
4) Unlike Charlie, Coach Pete actually is an offensive genius. Watch any Boise game and you'll see more creative plays than you will in all other games combined that week.
5) It's not all about offense. Boise always has a solid D too, it's just that they don't have the studs that the top teams do. Again, they are taking the 2 and 3 stars (3 star baby!) and making it work.
6) Coach Pete is 1 for 1 in BCS bowls. Charlie is 0-2.
There are obviously other options ND could go after, but after a long day of traveling gave me time to think this all through (thanks for the snow Denver!), Coach Pete is really the only coach I would be excited to get. We would be silly to chase the popular name and go after this Kelly guy just because every team in need of a coach is after him.
All of this said, I still hope they give Charlie at least one more year.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Same as Everyone Else...
...ND coaching and BCS
BCS first, and the 3-way ties thing. For what it's worth, I'd like to point out that this year the BCS is working EXACTLY as intended. The national championship game will likely pair the winners of the 2 undisputedly best conferences, which combine to include 4 of the consensus top 5 (and 5 of the top 7) teams in the country. So, my apologies to USC (not really), but their conference and related strength of schedule wasn't good enough to merit their single loss as a national championship contender.
Although the SEC model worked out fine this year, the Big XII tiebreaker for determining the South division champion is really the problem. By this point, we know that OU is going to the Big XII Championship and, hopefully for the BCS, the national championship. (What a mess it would be if Missouri somehow finds a way to win that game.) But this is a problem with the conference, not the BCS, so don't blame the BCS for this.
I agree that it's unfortunate that Texas and TTU (I hate that people are discounting them because their BCS rank isn't as high in large part because they weren't a preseason top 10 team and lost most recently) apparently won't have a chance to factor into the national title picture, but I don't have a solution for the conference tiebreaker, so to go any further with this would be counterproductive.
However, in response to earlier posts, I am against forced scheduling, in large part because I think it is unnecessary and impractical and I think that it could hurt historical inter-conference rivalries (i.e. ND/UM, ND/USC, Florida/FSU, Iowa/Iowa St., etc.) because who would want to play a 3rd marquee non-conference game if they already have to play 2? I am also against an 8-team playoff because mid-December scheduling interferes with finals and because now you are bringing 2-loss teams into the picture.
Now ND coaching. I am for the most part in agreement with most of the other sentiments posted on this site. I think ND is in a lose-lose situation right now. Therefore, for too many reasons to write on a post that is already too long, I think that the best course of action is to keep Weis for at least one more and probably two more years. Link Weis to Clausen and that class--if he can't get it done in 1 1/2 years, fire him mid-season and be first in line to get a new coach.
Or maybe he'll die from "health complications" before that point.
BCS first, and the 3-way ties thing. For what it's worth, I'd like to point out that this year the BCS is working EXACTLY as intended. The national championship game will likely pair the winners of the 2 undisputedly best conferences, which combine to include 4 of the consensus top 5 (and 5 of the top 7) teams in the country. So, my apologies to USC (not really), but their conference and related strength of schedule wasn't good enough to merit their single loss as a national championship contender.
Although the SEC model worked out fine this year, the Big XII tiebreaker for determining the South division champion is really the problem. By this point, we know that OU is going to the Big XII Championship and, hopefully for the BCS, the national championship. (What a mess it would be if Missouri somehow finds a way to win that game.) But this is a problem with the conference, not the BCS, so don't blame the BCS for this.
I agree that it's unfortunate that Texas and TTU (I hate that people are discounting them because their BCS rank isn't as high in large part because they weren't a preseason top 10 team and lost most recently) apparently won't have a chance to factor into the national title picture, but I don't have a solution for the conference tiebreaker, so to go any further with this would be counterproductive.
However, in response to earlier posts, I am against forced scheduling, in large part because I think it is unnecessary and impractical and I think that it could hurt historical inter-conference rivalries (i.e. ND/UM, ND/USC, Florida/FSU, Iowa/Iowa St., etc.) because who would want to play a 3rd marquee non-conference game if they already have to play 2? I am also against an 8-team playoff because mid-December scheduling interferes with finals and because now you are bringing 2-loss teams into the picture.
Now ND coaching. I am for the most part in agreement with most of the other sentiments posted on this site. I think ND is in a lose-lose situation right now. Therefore, for too many reasons to write on a post that is already too long, I think that the best course of action is to keep Weis for at least one more and probably two more years. Link Weis to Clausen and that class--if he can't get it done in 1 1/2 years, fire him mid-season and be first in line to get a new coach.
Or maybe he'll die from "health complications" before that point.
Big XII Madness
Before I dive into the morass, I'd just like to post a couple Notre Dame thoughts.
First, I have to blow my own horn here and note that I correctly predicted that USC would cover the 32-point spread and win the game 38-3. Second, rumors are starting to swirl that Weis is going to commit seppeku by resigning and Cincinnatti head coach Brian Kelly will replace Weis under the Golden Dome. If so this will be the first smart move the Irish AD has made since hiring Lou Holtz.
OK, now once more into the breach dear friends...
...first, Mack Brown is a delusional hypocrite. He's trying to claim that despite losing to Texas Tech that the only head-to-head that matters was a win over Oklahoma back in August. The fact that Texas only beat OSU by 4 at home in October while OU just hung 61 on the 'Pokes in Stillwater means nothing.
So we all know that the tie-breaker process in the BigXII is kind of ridiculous, especially in the event of a 3-way tie. Because Texas beat OU, Tech beat Texas, and OU beat Tech you simply can't reasonably use head-to-head because those games cancel each other out. You have look at who is playing the best right now and who has the best overall resume. To me this breaks down to two primary things, non-conference schedule (and by extension, overall strength of schedule) and who's playing the best right now.
So let's examine these things now:
1)Non-conference/Strength of schedule:
First, I have to blow my own horn here and note that I correctly predicted that USC would cover the 32-point spread and win the game 38-3. Second, rumors are starting to swirl that Weis is going to commit seppeku by resigning and Cincinnatti head coach Brian Kelly will replace Weis under the Golden Dome. If so this will be the first smart move the Irish AD has made since hiring Lou Holtz.
OK, now once more into the breach dear friends...
...first, Mack Brown is a delusional hypocrite. He's trying to claim that despite losing to Texas Tech that the only head-to-head that matters was a win over Oklahoma back in August. The fact that Texas only beat OSU by 4 at home in October while OU just hung 61 on the 'Pokes in Stillwater means nothing.
So we all know that the tie-breaker process in the BigXII is kind of ridiculous, especially in the event of a 3-way tie. Because Texas beat OU, Tech beat Texas, and OU beat Tech you simply can't reasonably use head-to-head because those games cancel each other out. You have look at who is playing the best right now and who has the best overall resume. To me this breaks down to two primary things, non-conference schedule (and by extension, overall strength of schedule) and who's playing the best right now.
So let's examine these things now:
1)Non-conference/Strength of schedule:
- OU played patsies UT-Chattanooga and Washington. The scores in those games were 57-2 and 55-14 respectively, so the Sooners did what they were supposed to do and get no help. However, the Sooners also beat Big East champ (and BCS game bound) Cincinnatti 52-26 and hung 35-10 loss on 10-2 TCU.
- Texas played Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice, and their one "quality" opponent was a 5-7 Arkansas team. Also, Mack Brown is trying to point to their win over Mizzou as being worth something despite the fact that Mizzou went 1-2 vs. the South with their 1 win being by 3 over Baylor.
- Tech played Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMass. Despite what Tech has accomplished this year they effectively played the Sisters of the Poor in non-conference this year.
2) Who's playing the best right now:
- Most recently Texas lost to Tech and played 3 unranked teams and won each game
- Oklahoma beat #2 Tech in Norman by 44 and went on the road to beat #12 OSU by 20. OU's performance vs. 2 ranked teams is about what Texas did vs. unranked teams. Also, Oklahoma has not scored less than 35 points in a game this entire season.
- Texas Tech beat #1 Texas, a top-10 OSU, and then got shellacked by OU. Tech also just barely pulled out a win vs. Baylor at home. Call it a hangover from their loss to OU.
So I think it's abundantly clear that OU is playing better than anybody else in the BigXII-South, maybe the country (unless you're Florida), and deserves to be the team in the BigXII title game. I also think that Tech needs to be able to go to a BCS game but much like Mack Brown did in 2004 when he politicked for Texas to go to a BCS game over Cal and they ended up in the Rose Bowl beating Michigan the BCS is salivating over a possible USC-Texas game in the Fiesta Bowl.
Bottom line, OU has the most compelling case for being in the BigXII title game and I expect to see an OU-Florida BCS Championship game.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
My picks
I have 50 units after losing all my bets last week. Ugly.
20 units: Texas Tech (-21.5) vs. Baylor
20 units: North Carolina (-7) at Duke
10 unit Parlay:
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Kentucky
Nevada (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech
Tulsa (-16) at Marshall
20 units: Texas Tech (-21.5) vs. Baylor
20 units: North Carolina (-7) at Duke
10 unit Parlay:
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Kentucky
Nevada (-4.5) at Louisiana Tech
Tulsa (-16) at Marshall
Friday, November 28, 2008
My Take on Weis
I've let this process through my mind since the absolute embarrassment of Saturday's loss to Syracuse. I almost threw up after the game (literally). I was that sick to my stomach.
It's taken some time to figure out my opinion on this whole Notre Dame coaching situation. A lot of traveling (tonight is the fifth city I'll be in during a seven-night stretch) gave me the opportunity to formulate what my opinion. None of this is earth-shattering, but I wanted it to be simple and easy to explain to both people in the Notre dame family and people who just ask me.
The main on-the-field issue is the lack of the controlling the line of scrimmage. Defensively, we weren't expecting anything special this year as Weis has struggled to recruit game-changing depth there (outside of Ethan Johnson). The linebackers are young and should be there in a couple of years. But the inability to run the ball is mind-boggling. From this offseason's infamous "we're going to pound it" comment to the scrimmage posted online at UND.com that consisted of all running plays, it seemed this offense was starting to get it. That couldn't have been any further from the truth.
The inability to run the ball is a major reason this team can't close out games. A nasty, physical offensive line wears down the defense in the second half and specifically the fourth quarter. If ND could run the ball, it beats Pitt, it beats Syracuse and probably beats UNC. I'm more surprised when the Irish pick up 3rd-and-short on a run than I am to see them get stuffed in a BC-Eric Olsen style.
Without a change in this department, Weis and the ND offense will never be national-championship caliber.
The other area is off-the-field, but translates into on-the-field results. This program's lack of emotion is the other major problem. I was watching the Texas defensive coordinator shoulder bump his players after they made a big play Thursday night and thought - where has that been on the ND sideline? Other than the Weis-going-crazy sideline huddle in the 4th quarter comeback at Michigan State in 2006, we haven't seen anything emotional from this staff on the sideline. Those 05 and 06 teams had swagger. These past two teams aren't good enough to have the swagger. Think back to the Michigan game, ND showed emotion. The crowd fed off it and before Rich Rodriguez knew what happened, it was 17-0. Weis talked in the offseason about the program's need to be more emotional because that's college football. It was around in September, but where is it now?
You can directly relate losses to North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the lack of emotion. Golden Tate talked after the UNC game about the team losing its edge. Sam Young said the sideline was dead against Syracuse... on Senior Day! That is a leadership problem.
A team that has emotion goes for the dagger and tries to bury its opponent. A team that has emotion plays for its seniors in their last home game in Notre Dame Stadium. It almost seems like Weis feels his players should have that "switch" naturally. College kids don't have that. Coaches need to wind them up and let them go.
Weis had his chance to turn those two main areas around during the 08 season.
I want Weis to succeed. I would love to give him the benefit of the doubt that it would change with the 09 team, but he hasn't earned that chance. I gave it to him coming into the 2008 season and now ND is 6-5 and 32-point underdogs going into the Coliseum and an SC team foaming at the mouth.
He's an alum who cares about the university (unlike Davie and Willingham). Theismann is right, this game isn't about if ND. If the Irish don't play competitively Saturday night, then Weis should show how much he cares and step down.
As for who should replace him, that's another column for another day. And I have to figure out if I want to sell my soul to the coach named after a pope in Gainesville.
It's taken some time to figure out my opinion on this whole Notre Dame coaching situation. A lot of traveling (tonight is the fifth city I'll be in during a seven-night stretch) gave me the opportunity to formulate what my opinion. None of this is earth-shattering, but I wanted it to be simple and easy to explain to both people in the Notre dame family and people who just ask me.
The main on-the-field issue is the lack of the controlling the line of scrimmage. Defensively, we weren't expecting anything special this year as Weis has struggled to recruit game-changing depth there (outside of Ethan Johnson). The linebackers are young and should be there in a couple of years. But the inability to run the ball is mind-boggling. From this offseason's infamous "we're going to pound it" comment to the scrimmage posted online at UND.com that consisted of all running plays, it seemed this offense was starting to get it. That couldn't have been any further from the truth.
The inability to run the ball is a major reason this team can't close out games. A nasty, physical offensive line wears down the defense in the second half and specifically the fourth quarter. If ND could run the ball, it beats Pitt, it beats Syracuse and probably beats UNC. I'm more surprised when the Irish pick up 3rd-and-short on a run than I am to see them get stuffed in a BC-Eric Olsen style.
Without a change in this department, Weis and the ND offense will never be national-championship caliber.
The other area is off-the-field, but translates into on-the-field results. This program's lack of emotion is the other major problem. I was watching the Texas defensive coordinator shoulder bump his players after they made a big play Thursday night and thought - where has that been on the ND sideline? Other than the Weis-going-crazy sideline huddle in the 4th quarter comeback at Michigan State in 2006, we haven't seen anything emotional from this staff on the sideline. Those 05 and 06 teams had swagger. These past two teams aren't good enough to have the swagger. Think back to the Michigan game, ND showed emotion. The crowd fed off it and before Rich Rodriguez knew what happened, it was 17-0. Weis talked in the offseason about the program's need to be more emotional because that's college football. It was around in September, but where is it now?
You can directly relate losses to North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the lack of emotion. Golden Tate talked after the UNC game about the team losing its edge. Sam Young said the sideline was dead against Syracuse... on Senior Day! That is a leadership problem.
A team that has emotion goes for the dagger and tries to bury its opponent. A team that has emotion plays for its seniors in their last home game in Notre Dame Stadium. It almost seems like Weis feels his players should have that "switch" naturally. College kids don't have that. Coaches need to wind them up and let them go.
Weis had his chance to turn those two main areas around during the 08 season.
I want Weis to succeed. I would love to give him the benefit of the doubt that it would change with the 09 team, but he hasn't earned that chance. I gave it to him coming into the 2008 season and now ND is 6-5 and 32-point underdogs going into the Coliseum and an SC team foaming at the mouth.
He's an alum who cares about the university (unlike Davie and Willingham). Theismann is right, this game isn't about if ND. If the Irish don't play competitively Saturday night, then Weis should show how much he cares and step down.
As for who should replace him, that's another column for another day. And I have to figure out if I want to sell my soul to the coach named after a pope in Gainesville.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Thanksgiving Pick
Rough season thus far. This weekend, we're pushing all our chips to the center of the table. One pick all in, 60 units on Ole Miss -16 vs Missisippi State. I like the Rebs ability to run the ball against a porous MSU run defense. I also think Nutt and Ole Miss see this as a very important game and really want to make a statement after the upset loss last year that cost Orgeron his job. Plus I like the Michael Lewis book, "Blind Side".
Off topic: I haven't heard Houston Nutt's name mentioned as a possible ND coaching candidate. I like his disciplined coaching approach and think it would be exactly what this team needs (if a change is actually made). What are people's thoughts?
Off topic: I haven't heard Houston Nutt's name mentioned as a possible ND coaching candidate. I like his disciplined coaching approach and think it would be exactly what this team needs (if a change is actually made). What are people's thoughts?
- In one year at Ole Miss, the Rebels have improved from 3-9 (including 10-29 over 3 years) to 7-4, with two games left to play.
- In the 5 years before arriving at Arkansas, the Razorbacks were 26-30-1. In his 10 years at Arkansas, Nutt had a record of 75-48, including 3 SEC West Division Titles.
- In one year at Boise State in 1997, their first in Division I-A, Nutt led Boise to a 4-7 record, improving from 2-10 the year before in I-AA.
- At Murray State, Nutt posted a 22-3 combined record in his final two seasons, 1995 and 1996.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Pie in the sky
I am a bowl traditionalist. I believe that bowls helped make college football what it is today. As such, I believe it would be a travesty to completely do away with them. Further, speaking from D1-AA experience, it sucks to go 7-4 and have no post season. On this basis, I propose the following changes to college football to appease those who demand a play-off and improve on the greatest sport known to man:
1) Require conference pairings for non-conference play with a minimum of two inter-conference games each season. For instance, the Big 12 must pair with the SEC and Big 10 to where the teams from each conference play each other in a to-be-determined manner on consecutive Saturdays in September. In 2008, Oklahoma as the 2007 champ would have played LSU as the 2007 SEC champ and Ohio State as the 2007 Big 10 champ, Missouri would have played Tennessee and Illinois, and so on. These pairings would be done in advance in much the same way that schedules are made years in advance. Additionally, the conferences would already have an alternate team (either D1-AA or independent) lined up to play the last place team from the prior year when the conferences have a different number of teams (like with the Big 12 versus Big 10). The home versus away could be ironed out by the conferences two years a head of time and then it is just a matter of the schools having one year for the teams to plan travel arrangements once they are aware of each season's final standings. The conference pairings could then rotate from conference to conference every two years, for instance the Pac-10 might pair with the Big 12 and WAC for two seasons, and then the Big 10 and Mountain West for two seasons. This would help validate any conference supremacy arguments that are currently just speculative.
2) Create an 8 team play-off within the current bowl system. Immediately following all conference championship games, the top eight teams from the current BCS equation are seeded against each in order of rank (i.e. 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc.). Automatic bids are gone, however, no more than 2 teams from a conference are allowed. Therefore, if Texas Tech were the third team from the Big 12, but ranked #7, it would be bumped for the #9 team (assuming it is not the third from another conference). This would end any antitrust disputes that might come from the non-BCS conferences. The first round would be played in the middle of December at the home field of the higher seeded team. Concurrently, other bowl games would go on as scheduled- so you can still watch the Las Vegas Bowl the weekend after the first round of the BCS Play-off. The winners of the first round play-off would then play the second round on New Years day in a traditional big bowl including the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, and Cotton (I'm from Texas), which would rotate from second round play-off games to consolation bowls for the losers of the first round. Again, this is all concurrent with all other bowls currently scheduled- its not like you could make the Insight.com bowl any less relevant to John Q Public. Next the final game would be around January 10th at one of the traditional big bowls (whichever is up for the championship game that year). This system would still cause all regular season games to be relevant, it would heighten interest and fairness in the post season. Is there any difference in watching a consulation round Sugar bowl with Florida versus Texas as opposed to any of the other non-championship bowl games. I'd still love to watch the game. While at the same time, you are "allowing the championship to be decided on the field."
Tweaks to my ideas are welcomed, but I defy you to come up with a better system.
1) Require conference pairings for non-conference play with a minimum of two inter-conference games each season. For instance, the Big 12 must pair with the SEC and Big 10 to where the teams from each conference play each other in a to-be-determined manner on consecutive Saturdays in September. In 2008, Oklahoma as the 2007 champ would have played LSU as the 2007 SEC champ and Ohio State as the 2007 Big 10 champ, Missouri would have played Tennessee and Illinois, and so on. These pairings would be done in advance in much the same way that schedules are made years in advance. Additionally, the conferences would already have an alternate team (either D1-AA or independent) lined up to play the last place team from the prior year when the conferences have a different number of teams (like with the Big 12 versus Big 10). The home versus away could be ironed out by the conferences two years a head of time and then it is just a matter of the schools having one year for the teams to plan travel arrangements once they are aware of each season's final standings. The conference pairings could then rotate from conference to conference every two years, for instance the Pac-10 might pair with the Big 12 and WAC for two seasons, and then the Big 10 and Mountain West for two seasons. This would help validate any conference supremacy arguments that are currently just speculative.
2) Create an 8 team play-off within the current bowl system. Immediately following all conference championship games, the top eight teams from the current BCS equation are seeded against each in order of rank (i.e. 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc.). Automatic bids are gone, however, no more than 2 teams from a conference are allowed. Therefore, if Texas Tech were the third team from the Big 12, but ranked #7, it would be bumped for the #9 team (assuming it is not the third from another conference). This would end any antitrust disputes that might come from the non-BCS conferences. The first round would be played in the middle of December at the home field of the higher seeded team. Concurrently, other bowl games would go on as scheduled- so you can still watch the Las Vegas Bowl the weekend after the first round of the BCS Play-off. The winners of the first round play-off would then play the second round on New Years day in a traditional big bowl including the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, and Cotton (I'm from Texas), which would rotate from second round play-off games to consolation bowls for the losers of the first round. Again, this is all concurrent with all other bowls currently scheduled- its not like you could make the Insight.com bowl any less relevant to John Q Public. Next the final game would be around January 10th at one of the traditional big bowls (whichever is up for the championship game that year). This system would still cause all regular season games to be relevant, it would heighten interest and fairness in the post season. Is there any difference in watching a consulation round Sugar bowl with Florida versus Texas as opposed to any of the other non-championship bowl games. I'd still love to watch the game. While at the same time, you are "allowing the championship to be decided on the field."
Tweaks to my ideas are welcomed, but I defy you to come up with a better system.
BCS Projections
Here's the latest and greatest as we're in position for some controversy. Once again, these projections are if the season ended today.
National Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: ACC Champ (four different teams can make the title game) vs. Cincinnati
Penn State is going to the Rose Bowl. If Oregon State wins the Civil War, the Beavers get the Pac-10's BCS bid, knocking out USC. That will keep the Big Ten from getting two teams in the BCS
The national title game more than likely is going to get a SEC team and a Big XII team. The SEC team will come from the winner of the Alabama-Florida game. The Big XII team is where the controversy exists. Everyone knows about that.
The second Big XII team will go to the Fiesta Bowl, because even if the SEC has the No. 1 team in the BCS, the Sugar Bowl is going to take an SEC team (loser of the SEC title game) and not someone else. The Fiesta gets selections two and three, taking the second Big XII team and USC, in a game that's very marketable.
Utah is guaranteed a spot as the top non-BCS conference team. They are a more attractive option than the Big East team. Who would you want to see Florida/Alabama vs. Utah or Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati.
The really messy situation comes if we get a loss from Florida, Alabama and/or Oklahoma this weekend. We'll cross that bridge next week.
National Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: ACC Champ (four different teams can make the title game) vs. Cincinnati
Penn State is going to the Rose Bowl. If Oregon State wins the Civil War, the Beavers get the Pac-10's BCS bid, knocking out USC. That will keep the Big Ten from getting two teams in the BCS
The national title game more than likely is going to get a SEC team and a Big XII team. The SEC team will come from the winner of the Alabama-Florida game. The Big XII team is where the controversy exists. Everyone knows about that.
The second Big XII team will go to the Fiesta Bowl, because even if the SEC has the No. 1 team in the BCS, the Sugar Bowl is going to take an SEC team (loser of the SEC title game) and not someone else. The Fiesta gets selections two and three, taking the second Big XII team and USC, in a game that's very marketable.
Utah is guaranteed a spot as the top non-BCS conference team. They are a more attractive option than the Big East team. Who would you want to see Florida/Alabama vs. Utah or Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati.
The really messy situation comes if we get a loss from Florida, Alabama and/or Oklahoma this weekend. We'll cross that bridge next week.
Fire Weis??
Now that the dust has settled from the debacle against Syracuse on Saturday, I was hoping to hear every one's perspectives on Charlie Weis and the future of ND football.
For me, its come to the point where I don't like either option of firing or retention. I think we're screwed either way.
If we fire Charlie, I have no doubt that the ensuring coaching search (as usual) will be more embarrassing than our play on the field Saturday. Unless Swarbrick is working behind the scenes right now, determining the interest of candidates and lining up a highly qualified "home run" candidate, this search is going to end up a disaster just like the previous three. It will be fully equipped with flight tracking, George Smith living on campus, and random names removing themselves from consideration without cause (i.e. Jim Fassel in 2004 and Gary Barnett for every coaching search since 1996).
On the home front, my other fear that firing Weis would lead to another "black hole" in our roster and depth chart. Starting with the 2009 season, we will have fully recovered from the attrition and empty recruiting class that resulted from our prior coaching change. I've honestly been looking forward to that and am curious as to what Weis can do with a loaded, experienced roster.
But on the other side, what has Weis shown us that honestly makes you believe we will be even decent next year? In a quote from his opening press conference, Weis said that we would have a "hardworking, intelligent, nasty football team, because the team would take on the personality of the coach." Weis' teams have definitely taken on the personality of their coach and the results are disastrous on the field.
When you hear that quote, as an ND fan you hoped that meant playing "nasty" and with swagger. Instead, it has meant playing reckless, soft, over-confident, and cute. The best example is the team effectively mailing in the Washington, Stanford, Navy, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse games as wins because we had 2 score leads. There is a big difference between having swagger and being over confident and not sufficiently motivated. In every one of those games this was the case (thrown in SDSU while you're at it) and it has cost the Irish a successful season.
Looking ahead at a 2009 with Weis still at the helm. His 2008 Irish lost at home on Senior Day to an 8 loss team. There are a bunch of marginal teams on our schedule in 2009. Based on the evidence of Weis shown to date, his teams are not above being beaten (humiliated) by sub-par talent. Therefore, no one should simply point at a weak schedule and declare that we are guaranteed a 10-2 season. Rather, it will probably be much like this season, where we are more talented than 11 out of 12 teams we will play, but will probably finish around 7-5. Don't forget the fact that there is a very good chance that this team loses to Nevada (and their #1 ranked rushing offense) at home to start 2009. If that happens, 5-7 for 2009 is not out of the realm of possibility.
Where does this leave Notre Dame and the new athletic administration of Jack Swarbrick? We're screwed either way. But I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks. Can we win a bowl game please?
At least the basketball team is good. Go Irish, Beat Horns!!
For me, its come to the point where I don't like either option of firing or retention. I think we're screwed either way.
If we fire Charlie, I have no doubt that the ensuring coaching search (as usual) will be more embarrassing than our play on the field Saturday. Unless Swarbrick is working behind the scenes right now, determining the interest of candidates and lining up a highly qualified "home run" candidate, this search is going to end up a disaster just like the previous three. It will be fully equipped with flight tracking, George Smith living on campus, and random names removing themselves from consideration without cause (i.e. Jim Fassel in 2004 and Gary Barnett for every coaching search since 1996).
On the home front, my other fear that firing Weis would lead to another "black hole" in our roster and depth chart. Starting with the 2009 season, we will have fully recovered from the attrition and empty recruiting class that resulted from our prior coaching change. I've honestly been looking forward to that and am curious as to what Weis can do with a loaded, experienced roster.
But on the other side, what has Weis shown us that honestly makes you believe we will be even decent next year? In a quote from his opening press conference, Weis said that we would have a "hardworking, intelligent, nasty football team, because the team would take on the personality of the coach." Weis' teams have definitely taken on the personality of their coach and the results are disastrous on the field.
When you hear that quote, as an ND fan you hoped that meant playing "nasty" and with swagger. Instead, it has meant playing reckless, soft, over-confident, and cute. The best example is the team effectively mailing in the Washington, Stanford, Navy, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse games as wins because we had 2 score leads. There is a big difference between having swagger and being over confident and not sufficiently motivated. In every one of those games this was the case (thrown in SDSU while you're at it) and it has cost the Irish a successful season.
Looking ahead at a 2009 with Weis still at the helm. His 2008 Irish lost at home on Senior Day to an 8 loss team. There are a bunch of marginal teams on our schedule in 2009. Based on the evidence of Weis shown to date, his teams are not above being beaten (humiliated) by sub-par talent. Therefore, no one should simply point at a weak schedule and declare that we are guaranteed a 10-2 season. Rather, it will probably be much like this season, where we are more talented than 11 out of 12 teams we will play, but will probably finish around 7-5. Don't forget the fact that there is a very good chance that this team loses to Nevada (and their #1 ranked rushing offense) at home to start 2009. If that happens, 5-7 for 2009 is not out of the realm of possibility.
Where does this leave Notre Dame and the new athletic administration of Jack Swarbrick? We're screwed either way. But I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks. Can we win a bowl game please?
At least the basketball team is good. Go Irish, Beat Horns!!
Friday, November 21, 2008
My Picks for the Week
I went 4-1 last week (and lost the parlay)... I have myself at 150 units
Betting 105 fictional units (five 20-unit bets and a 5-unit parlay):
Akron (-2.5) at Ohio
I've been following MAC football and this line makes absolutely no sense to me. Ohio is 2-8. Akron is 5-5 and looked pretty good last week against Buffalo.
LSU (-3.5) vs. Mississippi
Last week the oddsmakers knew something about that LSU-Troy game. This line actually has come down two points this week. I don't see LSU losing this game.
Indiana (+11) at Purdue
Purdue has one won game by double digits this year. That team is in the FCS.
North Carolina (-11) vs. NC State
If you can't go to college, go to State. UNC wins big at home.
Virginia (+2.5) vs. Clemson
Take ACC teams at home
Five-team parlay:
Buffalo (+4) at Bowling Green (Take the moneyline)
ND (-19.5) vs. Syracuse
Oklahoma (-7) vs. Texas Tech
Army (+19) at Rutgers
Memphis (-5) vs. UCF
Betting 105 fictional units (five 20-unit bets and a 5-unit parlay):
Akron (-2.5) at Ohio
I've been following MAC football and this line makes absolutely no sense to me. Ohio is 2-8. Akron is 5-5 and looked pretty good last week against Buffalo.
LSU (-3.5) vs. Mississippi
Last week the oddsmakers knew something about that LSU-Troy game. This line actually has come down two points this week. I don't see LSU losing this game.
Indiana (+11) at Purdue
Purdue has one won game by double digits this year. That team is in the FCS.
North Carolina (-11) vs. NC State
If you can't go to college, go to State. UNC wins big at home.
Virginia (+2.5) vs. Clemson
Take ACC teams at home
Five-team parlay:
Buffalo (+4) at Bowling Green (Take the moneyline)
ND (-19.5) vs. Syracuse
Oklahoma (-7) vs. Texas Tech
Army (+19) at Rutgers
Memphis (-5) vs. UCF
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Picks
100 fictional units as usual.
CIN +11.5 vs. PIT (11.50-10)- Thursday night
How is Cincy playing anyone as close as they have been? Ocho Cinco's inactiveness won't really hurt since he really hasn't done anything.
Boise -6 vs UNR (57.50-50)
This one was set by the same person who decided UCLA was only 7 points better than U Dub last week. Silly.
Texas Tech +7 vs Oklahoma (12.50-10)
I like TTU to win outright. I haven't seen an over/under for this game yet, but I don't think they can set it high enough. I'd guess it will be around 75.
CHI -8 vs. STL (16.50-15)
The UCLA and BSU linemaker has struck again!
KCC +3 vs. BUF (2.00 - 2.00)
Yes that is a 2 unit bet. That's what I had left.
CIN +11.5 vs. PIT (11.50-10)- Thursday night
How is Cincy playing anyone as close as they have been? Ocho Cinco's inactiveness won't really hurt since he really hasn't done anything.
Boise -6 vs UNR (57.50-50)
This one was set by the same person who decided UCLA was only 7 points better than U Dub last week. Silly.
Texas Tech +7 vs Oklahoma (12.50-10)
I like TTU to win outright. I haven't seen an over/under for this game yet, but I don't think they can set it high enough. I'd guess it will be around 75.
CHI -8 vs. STL (16.50-15)
The UCLA and BSU linemaker has struck again!
KCC +3 vs. BUF (2.00 - 2.00)
Yes that is a 2 unit bet. That's what I had left.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
BCS P
Duve didn't miss my post, I've just been incredibly busy at work. As I'm posting from the office right now before going home to catch some sleep.
Here are my projections if the season ended right now:
National Title Game: Texas Tech vs. Alabama
Rose: Oregon State vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina
It's hard to project out the ACC and Big East champions. The Big East will sort itself with a mini-title game coming up between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. No one wants to win the ACC.
Oregon State controls its own destiny with the Pac-10. Everyone would be excited to see Texas and USC.
Mark Feldman is a freaking moron for putting Texas-Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. If the Fiesta loses a team to the title game, it gets selection 1 and 3 in the BCS with the Sugar getting the 2 and 4 selections. There's no way the Fiesta is going to pass up on a matchup of USC-Texas. Nothing against Utah, but Texas-USC would be a big-time game.
If Oklahoma wins out, we have absolute chaos with three teams in the Big XII South with one loss, all going 1-1 in their mini-conference. I have no idea how the voters are going to work that one out. It's going to depend on how Oklahoma looks in these next two games.
Florida-Alabama is shaping up to be a de facto national semifinal game, but they both have to win rivalry games on Nov. 29.
Here are my projections if the season ended right now:
National Title Game: Texas Tech vs. Alabama
Rose: Oregon State vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina
It's hard to project out the ACC and Big East champions. The Big East will sort itself with a mini-title game coming up between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. No one wants to win the ACC.
Oregon State controls its own destiny with the Pac-10. Everyone would be excited to see Texas and USC.
Mark Feldman is a freaking moron for putting Texas-Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. If the Fiesta loses a team to the title game, it gets selection 1 and 3 in the BCS with the Sugar getting the 2 and 4 selections. There's no way the Fiesta is going to pass up on a matchup of USC-Texas. Nothing against Utah, but Texas-USC would be a big-time game.
If Oklahoma wins out, we have absolute chaos with three teams in the Big XII South with one loss, all going 1-1 in their mini-conference. I have no idea how the voters are going to work that one out. It's going to depend on how Oklahoma looks in these next two games.
Florida-Alabama is shaping up to be a de facto national semifinal game, but they both have to win rivalry games on Nov. 29.
BCS Prediction Commentary
So ESPN's projections for the week are a bit rough (I don't know what ever happened to Blozar's projections - I must have missed that post). Here are some thoughts on each game:
| FedEx BCS National Championship Game (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2) | Texas Tech vs. Florida | Texas Tech vs. Florida |
| Tostitos Fiesta (BCS vs. BCS) | Texas vs. USC | Texas vs. Utah |
| Allstate Sugar (BCS vs. BCS) | Alabama vs. Utah | Alabama vs. USC |
| FedEx Orange (BCS vs. BCS) | Maryland vs. Cincinnati | Cincinnati vs. Miami (FL) |
| Rose Bowl presented by Citi (BCS vs. BCS) | Penn State vs. Oregon State | Penn State vs. Oregon State |
Texas Tech vs Florida - I'll admit I am a Big XII apologist, and I really am a believer in Texas Tech right now. While their wins have been impressive, they did beat Okie State and Texas at home and trashed a KU team on the road that is a shadow of the team from last year. Going to Norman will be a real test, which I'm not sure if TTU is up for. If this matchup happens I'm predicting another SEC National Champion.
Texas vs. USC = great game, Texas vs. Utah = not good - Yes Utah has won a BCS game...against Pittsburgh, and Texas is well beyond TCU or Michigan or BYU. The Utes will be out of this one early. However, Texas vs USC provides the potential of a great rematch of the 2005 Rose Bowl. USC's defense against Colt McCoy? This would be a fun game to watch.
Alabama vs Utah/ Alabama vs. USC - So pretty much take the reasons from above and put them here for why I wouldn't want to watch Alabama vs Utah. Also, the thought of two storied programs, two great defenses with a lot of speed and some great playmakers on offense, this would be awesome! However...that means that based on these predictions if Alabama plays USC, then Texas plays Utah...ugh.
Orange Bowl - this really isn't worth talking about other than the fact that ND could possible play the ACC team not in the Orange Bowl in the Gator Bowl. I'm sure the Orange Bowl organizers love the thought of Cincinnati coming to town while everyone else gets teams like Texas, Alabama, USC and Penn State for their fan base.
Penn State vs. Oregon State - For those that didn't TiVo the 45-14 drubbing in the first weekend in September, don't feel bad you get to watch the replay. I will be surprised if Oregon State wins at Arizona and then beats Oregon. I expect them to slip once, USC to win the Pac-10 (again) and there will be no at large bid for Oregon State. That probably means that Ohio State slips in as another at-large over Boise State. If that's the case it would be great if Ohio State could play an SEC school, just for fun.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Weekend Picks
I wasn't sure if I was going to have time to do this, but I just wrapped up post game stuff for the Griffs. I have 105 units to use and my flight for Baltimore leaves in seven and a half hours.
Five bets at 20 units apiece:
Notre Dame (-4) vs. Navy
If we lose this game, the 20 units loss will be the least of my concerns.
Texas (-13.5) at Kansas
Do we remember what Oklahoma did to Kansas? And Texas beat Oklahoma. I'm not saying Texas is a better team than Oklahoma, but two touchdowns isn't very many
UCLA (-7) at Washington
As one of the other posters said, really?
Connecticut (-10) at Syracuse
Dead Man Walking
South Florida (-8) vs. Rutgers
I vowed never to put USF in my top 25 again this year, but didn't say anything about fictional bets
Non-BCS Parlay: (5 units)
Middle Tennessee State (-2.5) at Western Kentucky
Western Michigan (-15.5) vs. Toledo
Utah (-30) at SDSU
ECU (+2.5) at Southern Miss
Louisiana Lafayette (-2) at Florida Atlantic
Five bets at 20 units apiece:
Notre Dame (-4) vs. Navy
If we lose this game, the 20 units loss will be the least of my concerns.
Texas (-13.5) at Kansas
Do we remember what Oklahoma did to Kansas? And Texas beat Oklahoma. I'm not saying Texas is a better team than Oklahoma, but two touchdowns isn't very many
UCLA (-7) at Washington
As one of the other posters said, really?
Connecticut (-10) at Syracuse
Dead Man Walking
South Florida (-8) vs. Rutgers
I vowed never to put USF in my top 25 again this year, but didn't say anything about fictional bets
Non-BCS Parlay: (5 units)
Middle Tennessee State (-2.5) at Western Kentucky
Western Michigan (-15.5) vs. Toledo
Utah (-30) at SDSU
ECU (+2.5) at Southern Miss
Louisiana Lafayette (-2) at Florida Atlantic
Pick for the weekend
I'm putting all 100 units on Air Force -5 versus BYU.
The time is right for Air Force to take the Cougars out back and give them an old-fashioned whooping at Falcon Stadium.
Setting the scene...
An F-18 Hornet kicks on the afterburners as he buzzes the stadium, warming the bones of each of the over 50000 in attendance.
"Off we go, into the wild blue yonder..."
"...NOTHING CAN STOP THE U.S. AIR FORCE"
Four F-16s in formation shake each blade of grass on the field as they fly over the stadium.
The Cadet Wing marches in.
The Bird delivers the game ball from a plane thousands of feet above the field.
The Stars and Stripes arrive from the same airplane, landing gracefully on the Falcon logo at midfield.
The flag does not contact the ground before cadets rush in to fold Old Glory.
An SR-71 Blackbird appears from the south as the Cadet Choir sings The Star Spangled Banner. It speeds over the stadium exactly at "...O'er the land of the free..."
Game on.
The game is a one-sided affair, with BYU warming up the bus at halftime. The cadets are so sore from all the pushups they've done (one for each point on the board after each score) that they have difficulty when The Bird and the Academy Superintendent crowd-surf the lower bowl. But this is the U.S. Air Force, so it is accomplished nonetheless.
Maybe this is a little ambitious. I mean, the SR-71 isn't even in service anymore. And if Air Force does not go on to treat BYU like the Rangers treated the Orioles, there's always next week. I can get these 100 units back then.
The time is right for Air Force to take the Cougars out back and give them an old-fashioned whooping at Falcon Stadium.
Setting the scene...
An F-18 Hornet kicks on the afterburners as he buzzes the stadium, warming the bones of each of the over 50000 in attendance.
"Off we go, into the wild blue yonder..."
"...NOTHING CAN STOP THE U.S. AIR FORCE"
Four F-16s in formation shake each blade of grass on the field as they fly over the stadium.
The Cadet Wing marches in.
The Bird delivers the game ball from a plane thousands of feet above the field.
The Stars and Stripes arrive from the same airplane, landing gracefully on the Falcon logo at midfield.
The flag does not contact the ground before cadets rush in to fold Old Glory.
An SR-71 Blackbird appears from the south as the Cadet Choir sings The Star Spangled Banner. It speeds over the stadium exactly at "...O'er the land of the free..."
Game on.
The game is a one-sided affair, with BYU warming up the bus at halftime. The cadets are so sore from all the pushups they've done (one for each point on the board after each score) that they have difficulty when The Bird and the Academy Superintendent crowd-surf the lower bowl. But this is the U.S. Air Force, so it is accomplished nonetheless.
Maybe this is a little ambitious. I mean, the SR-71 isn't even in service anymore. And if Air Force does not go on to treat BYU like the Rangers treated the Orioles, there's always next week. I can get these 100 units back then.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Weekend picks
First off, I must report that my initial post had another loss this week. The internet says Mo Green was finally voted off of the dancing show, so my 7-1 falls.
Here's what I'm liking, and since I'll be at the Northwestern vs. Michigan game (go Cats!) I won't be able to change the gameplan. (100 units)
Thursday:
NYJ ML +135 vs. NE (10 units to win 13.50)
Special note - those who don't get NFL network, like me, last week you could watch on http://www.channelsurfing.net/
Va Tech ML +170 vs. The U (10 - 17)
Saturday:
NW +4 vs. Mich (11.50 - 10)
ND -4 vs. Navy (22-20)
This is one of those rare times it is okay to look at your own team. This is a silly line fueled by the fluky, horrible game by Jimmy last week.
Idaho +37 vs. Boise (5.75-5)
Because this is a "rivalry" game, Boise only wins by 35.
UCLA -7 vs. Wash (16.50-15)
Is this line a joke? I thought maybe Locker was going to be back, but he's actually having surgery this week.
LSU -18 vs. Troy (11-10)
Oregonian Randy Couture -105 vs. Brock Lesnar (10.50-10)
I was surprised to see Couture as a dog in this one (Lesnar is -135). Obviously, Couture cannot win forever, but this one is over once it's on the ground. While Lesnar is a better wrestler than most realize, I haven't seen a heavyweight at Couture's level in the UFC.
Crazy parlay (2.75 units)
ND -4, Ohio St -10, Texas -13.5, UF -23, SJSU +15, Mizz -28, USC -23.5, Ala -22, LSU -18, UCLA -7
Here's what I'm liking, and since I'll be at the Northwestern vs. Michigan game (go Cats!) I won't be able to change the gameplan. (100 units)
Thursday:
NYJ ML +135 vs. NE (10 units to win 13.50)
Special note - those who don't get NFL network, like me, last week you could watch on http://www.channelsurfing.net/
Va Tech ML +170 vs. The U (10 - 17)
Saturday:
NW +4 vs. Mich (11.50 - 10)
ND -4 vs. Navy (22-20)
This is one of those rare times it is okay to look at your own team. This is a silly line fueled by the fluky, horrible game by Jimmy last week.
Idaho +37 vs. Boise (5.75-5)
Because this is a "rivalry" game, Boise only wins by 35.
UCLA -7 vs. Wash (16.50-15)
Is this line a joke? I thought maybe Locker was going to be back, but he's actually having surgery this week.
LSU -18 vs. Troy (11-10)
Oregonian Randy Couture -105 vs. Brock Lesnar (10.50-10)
I was surprised to see Couture as a dog in this one (Lesnar is -135). Obviously, Couture cannot win forever, but this one is over once it's on the ground. While Lesnar is a better wrestler than most realize, I haven't seen a heavyweight at Couture's level in the UFC.
Crazy parlay (2.75 units)
ND -4, Ohio St -10, Texas -13.5, UF -23, SJSU +15, Mizz -28, USC -23.5, Ala -22, LSU -18, UCLA -7
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Weekend Picks - Baltimore Edition
Just like the Irish, I'm still looking to bounce back:
Four picks and a 5 team parlay:
South Carolina +22.5 at Florida
- 20 units to win 18.18
I'm betting against Florida again, which was a bad idea in WLOCP. South Carolina is playing a lot better recently and is capable of making this a decent game.
FSU - 6.5 vs. BC
- 20 units to win 18.18
Crane did not impress me. Speaking to a buddy of mine from BC, he said that Crane is usually even worse than he was against ND. I think FSU takes this by more than a 1 TD. Also, BC is in for an emotional let down. Its not often that a program wins the Super Bowl in the middle of their season.
LSU -18.5 vs. Troy
- 20 units to win 18.18
LSU bounces back. This line seems incredibly low.
Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Louisville
- 20 units to win 18.18
Louisville looked terrible against Pitt, while Cincinnati continues to get better. The trend in this game makes it a no brainer.
Parlay - 5 units to win 128
Idaho +36.5 vs. Boise State - Now the line is too big.
Buffalo +3.5 at Akron - I wanted to take the Bulls the last 2 weekends and didn't because they play football on Tuesdays. Now that the game is on Thursday, I can at least get my pick in.
ECU +3 at Southern Mississippi - I think ECU can win this straight up.
ND - 3.5 vs. Navy - Post game fumble drill in the M&T Bank Stadium parking lot if the Irish don't win this game.
OSU -9.5 at Illinois - OSU gets revenge from last year. The Zooker lost to WMU last weekend. The Buckeye defense is going to hammer Juice and their one dimensional offense.
Four picks and a 5 team parlay:
South Carolina +22.5 at Florida
- 20 units to win 18.18
I'm betting against Florida again, which was a bad idea in WLOCP. South Carolina is playing a lot better recently and is capable of making this a decent game.
FSU - 6.5 vs. BC
- 20 units to win 18.18
Crane did not impress me. Speaking to a buddy of mine from BC, he said that Crane is usually even worse than he was against ND. I think FSU takes this by more than a 1 TD. Also, BC is in for an emotional let down. Its not often that a program wins the Super Bowl in the middle of their season.
LSU -18.5 vs. Troy
- 20 units to win 18.18
LSU bounces back. This line seems incredibly low.
Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Louisville
- 20 units to win 18.18
Louisville looked terrible against Pitt, while Cincinnati continues to get better. The trend in this game makes it a no brainer.
Parlay - 5 units to win 128
Idaho +36.5 vs. Boise State - Now the line is too big.
Buffalo +3.5 at Akron - I wanted to take the Bulls the last 2 weekends and didn't because they play football on Tuesdays. Now that the game is on Thursday, I can at least get my pick in.
ECU +3 at Southern Mississippi - I think ECU can win this straight up.
ND - 3.5 vs. Navy - Post game fumble drill in the M&T Bank Stadium parking lot if the Irish don't win this game.
OSU -9.5 at Illinois - OSU gets revenge from last year. The Zooker lost to WMU last weekend. The Buckeye defense is going to hammer Juice and their one dimensional offense.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The quandary that is the Colorado Rockies
In the 2000 MLB season, the Colorado Rockies finished a promising 82-80 and young superstar Todd Helton was robbed the NL MVP by Jeff "Reno 911" Kent. It was also the debut season for GM Dan O'Dowd. In the offseason, O'Dowd and Co. decided to ship off fan favorites Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla and concentrate on pitching. A bold idea, considering the recently failed Darryl Kile experiment in Denver.
They first went after Denny Neagle and landed a good pitcher to a hefty contract (5 years, $51 million). Then they loaded a fleet of dump trucks full of the Benjamins and parked them in the driveway of Mike Hampton, having hardly enough time to mention the great Denver schools before Hampton had Hancocked the contract (8 years, $121 million, the largest ever for a pitcher at the time). The two pitchers were coming off successful seasons and had just faced eachother in the Subway Series, Neagle for the Yankees and Hampton for the Mets. Both were former 20 game winners. Both were southpaws. They appeared to be good signings, albeit expensive, and maybe it was a sign that the Rockies could be a contender with their seemingly deepened pockets. And even after offloading two of the original Blake Street Bombers they still had Helton and former MVP Larry Walker in the lineup
In hindsight they probably should have left one or two of the dumptrucks parked back home at Coors Field.
It was a dream start to the 2001 season for Hampton and the Rockies - an opening-day shutout in front of over 50000 at Coors Field, followed by a win by Neagle and a sweep of the Cardinals. Hampton was even a deserved All-Star that year. But then things went south. The struggles of the two new pitchers were well documented. Hampton was gone after two seasons and Neagle after three. (Hampton would, however, go on to steal more money as a Brave than Carl Pavano stole from the Yankees.)
The Rockies gambled by placing over $170 million in chips on two pitchers on the Pass Line, and when a 7 was rolled found themselves wishing they'd put their money onto the Come Line instead (or perhaps they should have just spread the money over several different bets).
Though Hampton and Neagle were certain busts, The Rockies did receive a number of good, productive seasons out of Helton and Walker, each of whom signed massive deals of their own with Colorado. Walker (6 years, $76 million) would, however, battle Ken Griffey Jr for baseball's version of Marcus "The Glass House" Camby, as stars continually sidelined by new injuries. Toward they end of his deal, the Rockies had to dump him to Saint Louis and eat his salary. Now the team is stuck in the same situation with Helton and his 9 year, $141.5 million deal: aging, damaged goods with a lot of money tied in for another couple of seasons.
Colorado's days of offering such Ruthian contracts are certainly over.
Why do I bring up this bit of Rockies personnel history? It foreshadows the day's big news from the world of Major League Baseball: Matt Holliday being traded to Oakland, a team so frugal they wear white cleats.
Colorado will repeortedly receive three players in return, none of whom qualifies as an 'ace' or a 'star.' The big name is closer Huston Street, who could just be dealt again by the Rocks. Also included are pitcher Greg Smith, fresh off a 7-16 season, and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (who?).
Holliday was reported to have rejected the Rockies' offer of five years, $85 million. That's a lot of money, though for just five seasons. Holliday and his agent, Scott "Used Car Salesman" Boras, want a longer max deal.
The Rockies have shown that they will still sign a guy for six years - Troy Tulowitzki at 6 years, $31 million. But that was following Tulo's rookie campaign; he's now signed before he enters his prime, and he'll be just 30 when the contract has expired. Holliday is 28 now and definitely at the top of his game, and arguably should have won the 2007 NL MVP award ahead of Jimmy Rollins. Colorado locked in Tulowitzki early and got him for probably a lot cheaper than if they'd waited until a few years from now, to when he's Holliday's age and an established superstar.
Rockies' owners Chuck and Dick Monfort aren't afraid Holliday will turn into Hampton/Neagle and flush his performance down a truck stop urinal after signing a monster contract. They're afraid that his skills will diminish, he'll get old and brittle, and he'll become Walker/Helton, and they'll be stuck with his guaranteed money.
I can understand the Rockies' concerns considering how they've lost the contract game time and time again. But most of the young players that led them to the 2007 NL Pennant are signed to multi-year deals - Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, and Manuel Corpas. Garrett Atkins (who could find himself changing area codes, as well) remains the only major piece from the team yet to be locked down.
Except for Matt Holliday.
If the Rockies' brass wants to move forward and get back to the World Series they have to keep their players in town after they've reached their potential, both for the sake of their play on the field and for the sake of their loyal fans in the seats. They cannot revert back to a feeder team for baseball's rich clubs, selling off the players they develop for handfulls of prospects.
Leave that to the Oakland A's (see Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, and Rich Harden). I hope Matt Holliday doesn't get too attached to the white cleats - he won't be wearing them for long.
They first went after Denny Neagle and landed a good pitcher to a hefty contract (5 years, $51 million). Then they loaded a fleet of dump trucks full of the Benjamins and parked them in the driveway of Mike Hampton, having hardly enough time to mention the great Denver schools before Hampton had Hancocked the contract (8 years, $121 million, the largest ever for a pitcher at the time). The two pitchers were coming off successful seasons and had just faced eachother in the Subway Series, Neagle for the Yankees and Hampton for the Mets. Both were former 20 game winners. Both were southpaws. They appeared to be good signings, albeit expensive, and maybe it was a sign that the Rockies could be a contender with their seemingly deepened pockets. And even after offloading two of the original Blake Street Bombers they still had Helton and former MVP Larry Walker in the lineup
In hindsight they probably should have left one or two of the dumptrucks parked back home at Coors Field.
It was a dream start to the 2001 season for Hampton and the Rockies - an opening-day shutout in front of over 50000 at Coors Field, followed by a win by Neagle and a sweep of the Cardinals. Hampton was even a deserved All-Star that year. But then things went south. The struggles of the two new pitchers were well documented. Hampton was gone after two seasons and Neagle after three. (Hampton would, however, go on to steal more money as a Brave than Carl Pavano stole from the Yankees.)
The Rockies gambled by placing over $170 million in chips on two pitchers on the Pass Line, and when a 7 was rolled found themselves wishing they'd put their money onto the Come Line instead (or perhaps they should have just spread the money over several different bets).
Though Hampton and Neagle were certain busts, The Rockies did receive a number of good, productive seasons out of Helton and Walker, each of whom signed massive deals of their own with Colorado. Walker (6 years, $76 million) would, however, battle Ken Griffey Jr for baseball's version of Marcus "The Glass House" Camby, as stars continually sidelined by new injuries. Toward they end of his deal, the Rockies had to dump him to Saint Louis and eat his salary. Now the team is stuck in the same situation with Helton and his 9 year, $141.5 million deal: aging, damaged goods with a lot of money tied in for another couple of seasons.
Colorado's days of offering such Ruthian contracts are certainly over.
Why do I bring up this bit of Rockies personnel history? It foreshadows the day's big news from the world of Major League Baseball: Matt Holliday being traded to Oakland, a team so frugal they wear white cleats.
Colorado will repeortedly receive three players in return, none of whom qualifies as an 'ace' or a 'star.' The big name is closer Huston Street, who could just be dealt again by the Rocks. Also included are pitcher Greg Smith, fresh off a 7-16 season, and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (who?).
Holliday was reported to have rejected the Rockies' offer of five years, $85 million. That's a lot of money, though for just five seasons. Holliday and his agent, Scott "Used Car Salesman" Boras, want a longer max deal.
The Rockies have shown that they will still sign a guy for six years - Troy Tulowitzki at 6 years, $31 million. But that was following Tulo's rookie campaign; he's now signed before he enters his prime, and he'll be just 30 when the contract has expired. Holliday is 28 now and definitely at the top of his game, and arguably should have won the 2007 NL MVP award ahead of Jimmy Rollins. Colorado locked in Tulowitzki early and got him for probably a lot cheaper than if they'd waited until a few years from now, to when he's Holliday's age and an established superstar.
Rockies' owners Chuck and Dick Monfort aren't afraid Holliday will turn into Hampton/Neagle and flush his performance down a truck stop urinal after signing a monster contract. They're afraid that his skills will diminish, he'll get old and brittle, and he'll become Walker/Helton, and they'll be stuck with his guaranteed money.
I can understand the Rockies' concerns considering how they've lost the contract game time and time again. But most of the young players that led them to the 2007 NL Pennant are signed to multi-year deals - Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, and Manuel Corpas. Garrett Atkins (who could find himself changing area codes, as well) remains the only major piece from the team yet to be locked down.
Except for Matt Holliday.
If the Rockies' brass wants to move forward and get back to the World Series they have to keep their players in town after they've reached their potential, both for the sake of their play on the field and for the sake of their loyal fans in the seats. They cannot revert back to a feeder team for baseball's rich clubs, selling off the players they develop for handfulls of prospects.
Leave that to the Oakland A's (see Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito, Dan Haren, and Rich Harden). I hope Matt Holliday doesn't get too attached to the white cleats - he won't be wearing them for long.
Weekend Results
I'm starting a post where you can self report your results. Do it in the comment section so they are all in one place.
Rebuilding
I guess it's time to rebuild again in Colorado. Thanks for the prospects, Oakland, enjoy having a solid hitter bolstering the middle of your lineup.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
My Picks
In before the deadline: 100 units
Four bets at 20 units each:
One bet at 15:
Four bets at 20 units each:
- Florida (-23.5) at Vanderbilt. The fact this line dropped before 24 excites me. The Gators are on a mission
- Tennessee (-26.5) vs. Wyoming: The Cowboys lost by more than 30 to teams in their conference. The Vols want to honor Fulmer
- Florida State (-4) vs. Clemson. Clemson stinks and this line keeps coming down.
- Arizona (-40.5) at Washington State. I'm riding the Cougars until they show they can score points
One bet at 15:
- Memphis (-2) at SMU. SMU lost by 27 to Navy. Maybe Vegas knows more than me on this one.
- Boise State (-35) vs. Utah State
- Bowling Green (-3) at Ohio
- Rice (-9.5) vs. Army
- Middle Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe
- BYU (-36.5) vs. SDSU
Friday, November 7, 2008
Why I Hate BC
I really can't stand Boston College. As a Domer, we have our share of rivals, but Boston College is that one school that really just gets to me. I can't stand anything related to Michigan and don't like USC - but at least I can find a measure of respect for their programs. Boston College on the other hand...only knows one thing about greatness - and that's when they ruin the greatness of others. Here are a few reasons I hate BC:
- Backup College Superfan shirts worn by ND students are infinitely better than the BC "Rudy Sucks" shirts worn by BC students. Obviously Rudy sucks, otherwise it wouldn't be a very good movie, figure it out;
- That was not a kick in the National Championship last year, and anyone that tries to argue it was deserves the ignominy of holding a degree from BC. You win the game and yet still try to argue...
- You're not in Boston, you're not a college. Why don't you call yourself what you actually are, "Chestnut Hill University";
- The "little brother, please pay attention to me" mentality. Look, just because you beat us a few times in football doesn't mean you will ever be as good as Notre Dame;
- Your greatest moments in football history are spoiling the efforts of others, that's their pride. Here are two well known examples: 1)1984 - come from behind win against Miami led by Doug Flutie. Miami was the incumbent national champion and BC knocked them off. 2) I think this picture is enough said, I don't really want to get into further details.
I was going to make this a top 10 list, and I'm sure I could get there - however I really don't want to get worked up to that point right before I get on the plane. Go Irish, let's hope for a clean sweep this weekend.
Quick Browns-Broncos Recap
Since Duve requested it:
I was very pleased with Brady Quinn last night. He played very well and I love his attitude after the game that he felt he didn't do enough to win. Granted, Quinn could have made a better throw on third down, but on fourth down, he couldn't have placed the ball any better for Winslow. I won't even get into the playcalling of 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1.
Quinn's ability to throw on the run was very good, and his best throw of the night came to Braylon Edwards, but was nullifed by The Soldier's offensive PI. He seemed calm. Winslow talked about how Quinn would calm him down in the huddle.
Anyway, the Browns just aren't very good. The defense is bad and when your head coach is supposed to come from the defensive side of the ball, that can't be good for his job. I'm still holding out hope for Bill Cowher.
Overall, as I said before, it's a good first stat for Quinn from his stats perspective. Let's be honest, I didn't think the Browns would be able to turn around their season from 3-5 and get to the playoffs with their difficult schedule. The move to Quinn was smart because it gives you eight games to evaluate Quinn and see what you have from both of your quarterbacks.
Quinn's QB rating was like 104, Anderson had one over 100 this season, against the Giants.
I have a six-hour bus ride ahead of me to do my picks for the weekend.
I was very pleased with Brady Quinn last night. He played very well and I love his attitude after the game that he felt he didn't do enough to win. Granted, Quinn could have made a better throw on third down, but on fourth down, he couldn't have placed the ball any better for Winslow. I won't even get into the playcalling of 3rd and 1 and 4th and 1.
Quinn's ability to throw on the run was very good, and his best throw of the night came to Braylon Edwards, but was nullifed by The Soldier's offensive PI. He seemed calm. Winslow talked about how Quinn would calm him down in the huddle.
Anyway, the Browns just aren't very good. The defense is bad and when your head coach is supposed to come from the defensive side of the ball, that can't be good for his job. I'm still holding out hope for Bill Cowher.
Overall, as I said before, it's a good first stat for Quinn from his stats perspective. Let's be honest, I didn't think the Browns would be able to turn around their season from 3-5 and get to the playoffs with their difficult schedule. The move to Quinn was smart because it gives you eight games to evaluate Quinn and see what you have from both of your quarterbacks.
Quinn's QB rating was like 104, Anderson had one over 100 this season, against the Giants.
I have a six-hour bus ride ahead of me to do my picks for the weekend.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Weekend Picks: November 6 - November 9
It’s a new week and I'm determined to get better. I am not touching ND-BC with a ten foot pole. That game is going to be stressful enough.
Five games and a parlay:
- Boise State -34.5 vs. Utah State - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: This is a huge number (even up 3 pts from the opening line), but I'm betting the blue turf until the well runs dry.
- Texas -27 vs. Baylor - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: UT bounces back and blows out Baylor.
- Missouri -27 vs. Kansas Sate - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: KSU has a lame-duck head coach and allowed Kansas to stomp them last week. To quote Bill Murray from Space Jam, "Defense? I don't play defense."
- UVA +3.5 at Wake Forest - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Groh's boys are playing great football recently, while Wake Forest has not looked good since their big win versus FSU. By the way, the over/under on this game is 39!
- ASU -14.5 at Washington - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Speaking of lame-duck coaches, Washington cannot score and cannot play defense.
- Fun Pick of the Week - 5 Game Parlay ($5)
Minnesota -7.5 vs. Michigan
WVU -7 vs. Cincinnati
BYU -36.5 vs. San Diego St.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska
Washington St. +41 vs. Arizona
Five games and a parlay:
- Boise State -34.5 vs. Utah State - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: This is a huge number (even up 3 pts from the opening line), but I'm betting the blue turf until the well runs dry.
- Texas -27 vs. Baylor - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: UT bounces back and blows out Baylor.
- Missouri -27 vs. Kansas Sate - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: KSU has a lame-duck head coach and allowed Kansas to stomp them last week. To quote Bill Murray from Space Jam, "Defense? I don't play defense."
- UVA +3.5 at Wake Forest - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Groh's boys are playing great football recently, while Wake Forest has not looked good since their big win versus FSU. By the way, the over/under on this game is 39!
- ASU -14.5 at Washington - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Speaking of lame-duck coaches, Washington cannot score and cannot play defense.
- Fun Pick of the Week - 5 Game Parlay ($5)
Minnesota -7.5 vs. Michigan
WVU -7 vs. Cincinnati
BYU -36.5 vs. San Diego St.
Kansas +1 at Nebraska
Washington St. +41 vs. Arizona
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Selections
Here's what I'm looking at this week in D1 games and the NFL's Thursday night game, betting a fictional 108 units total:
DEN +3 vs. CLE (20 units to win 20 - even on Bodog)
Utah +2.5 vs. TCU (11 units to win 10)
Boise -35 vs. Utah St. (11 units - 10)
Kansas pick vs. Nebraska (16.5 units - 15)
Penn St. -7.5 vs. Iowa (22 units - 20) - Most confident pick of the week
Arizona St -14.5 vs. Washington (11 units -10)
Texas Tech -3 vs. OK St. (11 units - 10)
San Jose St -7 vs. La Tech (5.5 units - 5)
I will keep track of my record and my +/- unit record from here on out since I didn't think to do this last week.
New note - since Bill is putting his payouts up and accounting for the book's take, I will too.
See comments for picks added with Thursday night's fictional winnings.
DEN +3 vs. CLE (20 units to win 20 - even on Bodog)
Utah +2.5 vs. TCU (11 units to win 10)
Boise -35 vs. Utah St. (11 units - 10)
Kansas pick vs. Nebraska (16.5 units - 15)
Penn St. -7.5 vs. Iowa (22 units - 20) - Most confident pick of the week
Arizona St -14.5 vs. Washington (11 units -10)
Texas Tech -3 vs. OK St. (11 units - 10)
San Jose St -7 vs. La Tech (5.5 units - 5)
I will keep track of my record and my +/- unit record from here on out since I didn't think to do this last week.
New note - since Bill is putting his payouts up and accounting for the book's take, I will too.
See comments for picks added with Thursday night's fictional winnings.
2-for-5 and a little about number 10
I did say to take the points and UB on Tuesday night. A 20-point win later and I save a little face.
I'll have my "suggestions" on betting the weekend's games later in the week.
As for Quinn, I have been a very big Brady Quinn supporter ever since the Browns made the proactive move to get back into the 2007 first round and select him. I think he's going to be very good, based on his college stats and his experience in college. It's a very good predictor -- number of starts by quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
Look at other college QBs who had over 40 starts -- Manning, Palmer, Rivers, Brees, McNabb -- and their success rate is much more likely. If you look at the QBs without that many starts -- Russell, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Tim Couch -- and the success rate decreases. Granted, this wasn't a scientific study looking at all first-round QBs in the last 10 years, but I think my point is made.
For a little more in-depth look at college experience/success for pro success, here's an article from the Cleveland newspaper. The data is in the last few notes.
I'll have my "suggestions" on betting the weekend's games later in the week.
As for Quinn, I have been a very big Brady Quinn supporter ever since the Browns made the proactive move to get back into the 2007 first round and select him. I think he's going to be very good, based on his college stats and his experience in college. It's a very good predictor -- number of starts by quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
Look at other college QBs who had over 40 starts -- Manning, Palmer, Rivers, Brees, McNabb -- and their success rate is much more likely. If you look at the QBs without that many starts -- Russell, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Tim Couch -- and the success rate decreases. Granted, this wasn't a scientific study looking at all first-round QBs in the last 10 years, but I think my point is made.
For a little more in-depth look at college experience/success for pro success, here's an article from the Cleveland newspaper. The data is in the last few notes.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Mighty Quinn
I'm sure our resident Browns fan will have something to add to this based on his insider's perspective, but I'm really wondering about this switch to Brady by the Browns for this game. Quinn will pretty much get one practice as the starting QB to prepare for Denver. That's really not a lot of time to prepare as the starter for your first career regular season start. On the bright side for Quinn, he gets to play at home against the Broncos defense.
Considering Champ Bailey and Boss Bailey are out for the season, Williams is out for the game with a knee injury and the Denver defense has been pretty consistently gashed the entire season - short of playing the Raiders or Chiefs, Quinn has a good team to start against. I can also see the problem that the Browns need to pick a QB, Anderson's averages over the last 16 games (eight this year, eight last year) are sub-par at best and if somehow Anderson has a good game against a bad Broncos team - it makes it look worse to replace him for next week.
So what do we know for certain? If Quinn is going to be successful though, he's going to need more help than Anderson was getting. Edwards needs to stop dropping the ball and the rest of the offense needs to pitch in. I think it's also fair to say that Anderson is paid too much to be a backup and he'll need to get moved to another team, especially because if Quinn takes 55% of the snaps over the next two years (likely 50% for this year+potential starter for next year) his contract incentives are going to kick in. Last point, this Broncos/Browns game really lacks the appeal of the rivalry from the days of John Elway and Bernie Kosar. Games that saw "The Drive" and "The Fumble" were epic and instead our Thursday night entertainment will consist of two underperforming teams battling to be .500 in the standings.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Pick Success
Blozar - goes 1 for 4 and then loses his bonus parlay
Chuck - (sports only) goes 3 for 4 and then 0 for 2 on his bonus parlays
Bill - pretty much goes for broke
I think the market is even offering a better rate of return than Blozar and Bill right now.
Weekend Recap: October 30 - November 2
Last weekend started bad and ended bad. Here is the breakdown of how it went down. I'll come out with next week's picks on Wednesday.
1) South Florida -3 at Cincinnati - LOSS - Down $20
Cincinnati 24, USF 10 - I watched the first half and the 4th quarter. Matt Grothe is one of the most frustrating players to watch. I'm going to compare him to Reggie Ball, formerly of Georgia Tech. He has some talent (probably more than Ball), but is very inconsistent and makes a lot of bad decisions. Grothe is going down that path just like Ball, where he could start for 4 years and end his career as a disappointment. His "Gro-hawk" is also annoying.
On the other side of the ball, Cincy had a one armed quarterback and beat up on a USF defense that should have played better.
2) Navy -7.5 vs. Temple - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $40 Cumulative)
Navy 33, Temple 27 - I didn't see any of this game, just the scoreboard flash. Navy came all the way back to win after Temple (with a top 120 offense) took a huge lead into the 4th quarter.
When a 7.5 spread like this goes to OT, you can only hope for it go 3 OTs, have Navy get the ball first in the 3rd, score a TD, convert the required 2 pointer, and then stop Temple, resulting in an 8 pt victory. It obviously didn't get that far.
In related Navy news, I received an email yesterday offering a chance to purchase tickets to the EagleBank (yes, its one word) Bowl. Ahh, the perks of being Blue and Gold member.
3) Georgia +5.5 vs. Florida - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $60 Cumulative)
Florida 49, Georgia 10 - I was flipping between this game and the ND-Pitt game. Its 14-3 at Halftime and Florida starts with the ball. The Georgia defense responds by forcing a punt. The Bulldogs start a nice little drive, then the wheels completely fall off. Thinking back, this was a really bad pick on my part.
4) Boise St -20.5 at NMSU - WIN - Up $18.18 (Down $41.82 Cumulative)
Boise St. 49, NMSU 0 - Don't be shocked if I come back to the Broncos again next week.
5) Tulsa -7 at Arkansas - LOSS - Down $20 (Down $61.82 Cumulative)
Arkansas 30, Tulsa 23 - This was a late pick that didn't make it into the post. I should've stayed away. Tulsa has now proven itself to be an overrated fraud.
Bonus Parlay Pick - LOSS - Down $5 (Down $65.82 Cumulative)
This sucked because I lost the parlay on Thursday night. With bets like this, you are just looking to get to game 5 with a chance. Of the 8 games picked, I was 3-5 (winning Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas).
Overall: Last weekend was poor. Of the $105 bet, I'm left with $39.18 (down 63%), which is a worse performance than the Dow. This week's picks will be out Wednesday night. There are some decent games out there (Boise -31.5?), so I'm hoping to bounce back.
BCS Projections
A lot of time for this to play out as we can look at all the scenarios, but the Big XII and SEC will have its own mini-playoff.
Once again, it's if the season ends today, not projecting it out. The winner of the Utah-TCU will have the inside track for that last spot.
National Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Also, I'm working on FULL bowl projections, but this is a big project. I'm trying to figure out all the tie-ins.
Once again, it's if the season ends today, not projecting it out. The winner of the Utah-TCU will have the inside track for that last spot.
National Title Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Florida vs. Utah
Orange: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Also, I'm working on FULL bowl projections, but this is a big project. I'm trying to figure out all the tie-ins.
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