Guts, Experts or Vegas?

Picking sports games seems like it's more of an art than a science.  Our modern day oracles fill the airwaves and cyberspace try to consistently predict the future for how each game will turn out using stats, insider access and who knows what else.  Given that this is the night of the official kickoff of the NFL season - I think it's fitting to use this as test for art v science.  The NFL is a league built on parity and equality like none other and I wonder if Paul could do as well in this league as European football when it comes to picking winners.  My goal is to track picks each week based on the following four methods:

• My own intuition and experience that has been honed from years of sports dedication
• ESPN Power Rankings for week one where I pick the higher ranked team according to the ESPN "experts"
• Vegas odds for week one games
• My wife's picks - based on her intuition and experience that has been honed from years of watching Law & Order, Gilmore Girls and yelling at Tony Romo

I'm hoping I can do better than the experts - but if Starr wins out this season - I'm taking her to Vegas.  As for week one - games with varying picks are highlighted below in blue.

Game	My Pick	Power Ranking	Odds	Starr
Ravens v Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Patriots v Bills	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Titans v Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Falcons v Saints	Saints	Falcons	Saints	Saints
Buccaneers v Jets	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Jets
Chiefs v Jaguars	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Seahawks v Panthers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Bengals v Bears	Bengals	Bengals	Bears	Bengals
Dolphins v Browns	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Browns
Vikings v Lions	Lions	Vikings	Lions	Vikings
Raiders v Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Packers v 49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	Packers
Cardinals v Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Giants v Cowboys	Cowboys	Giants	Cowboys	Giants
Eagles v Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Texans v Chargers	Texans	Texas	Texans	Texans

Why Fantasy Football is Bad for the Game

Raise your hand if you've ever had any of the following thoughts (substitute player names as appropriate):

1. Kurt Warner is my QB in one league where I'm losing, but I'm playing against him in my other league where I'm currently winning my match up so I need him to do well but not that well.
2. The Broncos (or any childhood favorite team) just scored a touchdown to beat the Raiders (or any hated team) but it was a run instead of a pass so I get no points and I'm disappointed.
3. One of my receivers, Santana Moss, is playing against my defense, Dallas, and I need him to get a lot of receptions and yards but not score, but if he does score then I need my defense to sack Campbell a few times or better yet make Portis fumble because the guy I'm playing is playing Portis.

Okay, so if you've played fantasy football, you probably have your hand up right now.  You can put it down because I can't see you helping me make my point and your co-workers are probably wondering why you have your arm waving in the air.

Originally I liked the idea of fantasy football because suddenly I had a stake in almost every game, which should make every game interesting in one form or another.  Instead, all I can think about while watching games now are complex scenarios of "if he does this, then I need to have this happen, but then this might happen so then I'll need that to work out."  Ridiculous!

Additionally, fantasy football stats are like trying to bet on the over/under for points in a game.  The team and players don't care about your CBS Sportsline just like most coaches (outside of Steve Spurrier) aren't actively trying to break the over every week.  If you like football because it's football, shouldn't it be enough to just watch the games and enjoy them for what they are instead of furiously calculating 0.1 for every rushing yard?  Shouldn't you just be happy your RB broke 100 yards in the game because that's a good sign your team is doing well rather than being happy because you get a bonus point?

Maybe I'm slowly becoming a purist in my old age, it is what it is - but next year I'm looking forward to a season where my only angst is if the Broncos lose to the Chargers.  Until that time though, I hope Steve Slaton keeps having a good year.