Saturday, March 7, 2009

Puck and Playoff Predictions

If you haven't been paying much attention to the NHL, I'll fill you in on some intriguing storylines rather than rebuke you. Then I'll make some playoff predictions.

Two of the Eastern Conference's better teams for much of the first half of the season canned their head coaches following strings of poor play and descents in the standings. The Pittsburgh Penguins dropped the axe on Michel Therien - who led the team to the Stanley Cup Finals just last year - after the team dropped out of the playoff standings altogether, despite having the league's top two scorers at the time in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. He's been replaced by Dan Bylsma, a guy most known for being slow and unskilled on NHL video games of the late 1990s.

Later the New York Rangers gave Tom Renney his marching orders with the team also dropping, while struggling mightily to put the puck in the net. They've scored fewer goals than most Eastern Conference teams, though somehow the Ottawa Senators have scored the fewest. Two years ago that would have been like saying the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would someday be a respected baseball club. Renney's replacement is Stanley Cup winner John Tortorella, who himself was supplanted as Tampa Bay Lightning head coach by Barry Melrose after last season.

Speaking of the Lightning, has anyone seen their 'Bolts' third jersey? They've embraced a plural nickname without actually changing their official nickname. This jersey is, however, a huge step up from the team's first try at an alternate uniform. After the league shelved them a few years ago, third jerseys are back for some teams - including the lazy one concocted by the Ottawa Senators.

These are examples of why the alternate jersey was initially banned, though they pale in comparison to what were paraded around in the 1990s. That Wayne Gretzky was ever caught in this L.A. Kings piece of garbage is a crying shame. The mid-90s New York Islanders did not go with a third jersey, but rather an entirely new logo of a crusty old fisherman. After the players were getting seasick from looking at the back of the uniform, the team wisely reverted back to their classic logo. At least the Saint Louis Blues came to their senses and nixed their foray into a third jersey before it got to the locker room.

I'll segue from on-the-ice to off-the-ice threads. Renowned Canadian Don Cherry recently criticized Alexander Ovechkin (the object of The Doob's every desire) for his goal celebrations. He said the Russian acts like a soccer player when he scores. Ovechkin's celebrating is purely out of excitement, and is not premeditated like the soccer celebrations to which Cherry was referring. But if he thinks Ovechkin goes over the top when he scores, how does he explain his suits?

Ovechkin's Washington teammate and countryman Alexander Semin recently scored a goal that would make Ovie jealous, stickhandling and putting the puck away from his knees. He should keep doing stuff like that and not dropping the gloves.

Mats Sundin enjoyed a stunning homecoming in his return to Toronto as a member of the Vancouver Canucks. He received a lengthy standing ovation at the start of the game, then finished it off with a shootout winner.

The Detroit Red Wings recently surrendered eight goals twice in four games. The holders of The Cup were blanked 8-0 by Nashville, then gave the same punishment to Saint Louis 5-0, beat Colorado 3-2, and then lost to Columbus 8-2. While astounding, something tells me the organization will distribute goods equally to all members of the team and they'll be fine for the postseason. That's how communism works. Their victory over the Avalanche was a first this season. After going 8-0 against Colorado in all competition last season, the Wings were 0-3 against the bottom-dwelling Avs this year until the 3-2 win. So somehow Colorado won and almost swept the season series against Detroit, but were themselves swept by the traditionally woeful Blue Jackets.

One would think that the New Jersey Devils would be fighting just to make the playoffs after losing Martin Brodeur for much of the season to a torn biceps. All backups Scott Clemmensen and Kevin Weekes did was backstop the team to first place in the division in Brodeur's stead. Clemmensen, the number one goaltender in Brodeur's absense, was rewarded with a demotion to the AHL. Upon his return, Brodeur earned shutouts in two of his first three outings. He'll soon pass Patrick Roy on the all-time wins list and Terry Sawchuk in shutouts.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are the antithesis of the Devils when it comes to the postseason. New Jersey hasn't missed the playoffs since 1996 and has won three Stanley Cups since 1995. Columbus still awaits their first postseason appearance in their short existence. Even the Thrashers have been once. The Atlanta Thrashers - yes, an actual NHL team. If they get in (and it's a significant 'if'), the Blue Coats want to at least win a game, which would be exactly one more than Atlanta has in their history.

On the topic of the postseason, name one team that will not be participating:
If you answered the New York Islanders, you are obviously correct. But another acceptable answer would be the Colorado Avalanche. They've realized that you actually need good goaltending to compete in the NHL. While long term injuries to Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny - their top two centers - has hurt, I have to admit they're just a bad team. Here's hoping their ping pong balls take some lucky bounces for the lottery.

Like most teams, the Avalanche didn't do a whole lot at the trade deadline, only shipping Jordan Leopold back to Calgary for a new skate sharpener. Calgary's other move was certainly the biggest of the day, acquiring Olli Jokinen from Phoenix. There were immediate dividends for the Flames: Jokinen (drafted #3 overall in 1997) netted a brace in his debut, while Leopold added one on his return.


Now I'll tell you who makes the playoffs:

East:
1)
Boston - does this city really need another first place team?
2) New Jersey - a healthy Brodeur behind a potent offense makes them again dangerous
3) Washington - Jose Theodore and the blue line can't keep pace with the offense
4) Montreal - no centennial Coupe Stanley for Les Habitantes
5) Philadelphia - goaltending slightly better than Colorado
6) NY Rangers - offensive woes will continue
7) Pittsburgh - did anyone really think dealing for Chris Kunitz would return them to the finals?
8) Florida - don't worry, they won't make it out of the first round
Conference finals: New Jersey over Washington

West:
1)
San Jose - Claude Lemieux is still younger than Chris Chelios
2) Detroit - how has this team stayed under the cap and been so good year after year? It's an egalitarian team where the proletariat and the elite are not divided into classes. Damn Soviets.
3) Calgary - no one wants this team in the playoffs
4) Chicago - playing in Detroit's division doesn't help
5) Vancouver - a healthy Roberto Luongo (drafted #4 in 1997) isn't enough
6) Dallas - as you already know, they won't want Calgary in the playoffs
7) Nashville - see Florida, above
8) Minnesota - they need more than Marian Gaborik to score, and he's hurt more than Ken Griffey, Jr
And it looks like Columbus misses out yet again. That drought is too good to end now.
Conference finals: San Jose over Detroit

Stanley Cup Finals: San Jose over New Jersey

I don't want to see it any more than you, but the Cup goes to San Jose, California. The team is way too good to disappoint. They have one of the league's best goaltenders in Evgeni Nabokov, one of the better center tandems in the league in Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau (drafted #1 and #2 overall respectively in 1997), and they added veteran skilled blue-liners Rob Blake and Dan Boyle in the offseason. Even 43 year-old Claude Lemieux (back after a five year hockey hiatus) will have an impact, though he won't contribute on the ice much. He's got four Cups and a Conn Smyth trophy, and is exactly what the team needs for a two month journey to win the Drink. They also have Jonathan Cheechoo, my biggest fantasy sports disappointment since drafting Matt Leinart.

2 comments:

West Coast Bias said...

Since San Jose is the closest US team to where I grew up (with Vancouver being the closest overall), I can't say I'm upset with this prediction. Go Sharks!

The Doob said...

A few points:

1) I love Ovechkin
2) For someone with the kind of hand-eye coordination that Semin has, you would think he could do more than flail in a fight
3) San Jose is to the NHL what the Dutch are to International Soccer. Very talented, really good - but you can count on them choking when it matters most. Either Detroit or an Eastern Team (NJ/ Boston) will get past them. I would like to say Washington, but Jose Three-or-more will make sure the Caps don't get out of the second round.

p.s. I miss Huet

 
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