ND Basketball and Mike Brey

I know that several subscribers to this blog probably don't give 2 hoots for ND football and probably don't give 1 hoot about ND basketball. Too bad. Here's an analysis of this year's ND team from a guy that considers himself an amateur expert on college basketball:

- Defense and Rebounding - This Irish were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason because of their success last year and because they returned everyone but Rob Kurz. No one thought he was THAT big of a loss. I was even shocked to find out that he was in the NBA. We were wrong. ND has never been been renowned for its tenacious D or for protecting the defensive glass. That's what happens when you starting line-up is the cast of the suburban all-stars. Last year, they were poor with Rob Kurz; this year, they are pathetic without him. The Ohio St. and St. John's losses are directly attributable to the absence of Rob Kurz and the inability to prevent the opponents from getting offensive rebounds.

That said, Brey's system doesn't rely on defense by design. Brey knows that his team will score and score in bunches. He knows that there are maybe 8-10 teams in the country that can score with his team on a regular basis. He knows that if his team can make stops on 5 key possessions during the stretch run of just about any game, they will win. And he knows that he doesn't have the depth to allow any of his players to get into foul trouble. So he tells his players to keep their hands straight up and not to contest shots for most of the game--then the Irish get a few key stops down the stretch (aided by an energizing fan base over the past 45 home games) and earn the victory.

Impact: The primary thing that is keeping ND from being a final 4 contender.

- Lack of depth - Brey has never played with a deep bench. The Irish clearly have 3 go-to guys in Harangody (who has the bigger forehead?), Jackson, and MacAlarney. Ayers and Zeller are role players that can contribute offensively when someone else creates for them. Hillesland plays like a bitch. I don't really know what Peoples does. I like what Tyrone Nash (Soph) has done in limited minutes. Carlton Scott has been the next RuCar--instant offense--in limited minutes. The problem is just that--limited minutes. Brey played only 7 players (all Jr's/Sr's in the Seton Hall game. If KMac is going to average 39.5 minutes in the easiest 4-game stretch of the conference schedule, when is he going to get a rest? I think that the bench guys have the ability to contribute more, but they need to be given the ability.

Impact: In college, you can play with 7 for isolated games as long as you can stay out of foul trouble. You just can't do it when you're playing Seton Hall. No direct impact on the Irish, but it indirectly affects the defensive intensity (see above) and will cost the team 1-2 games because of the reliance on just a few people for scoring.

- Tory Jackson - Harangody is great--he's the reason that the Irish are a potential top-10 team instead of a potential top-20 team. MacAlarney is great--he's shooting 45% from 3pt range against the opponent's best perimeter defender each night (averaging 4-9 from 3pt range). Tory Jackson is the reason that ND will be successful this year. Tory's efficiency has been amazing this year; he is quietly shooting 42% from 3pt range (up from 27% in his first 2 years) and leading the Irish to a gawdy 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio as a team (Tory is at 2.3-1 personally). Since the beginning of conference play, Tory is averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5 assists, and only 1.75 TO in 37.5 minutes per game; during those 4 games, he has shot 19-42 (45.2%) from the field and 14-16 (87.5%) from the FT line.

Impact: As Tory goes, so do the Irish. The ceiling for this year's team is dependent on the ancillary players stepping up; the base for this year's team is Tory Jackson. He is more important to this team than Harangody.

- Upcoming stretch - The next month is the most critical part of the regular season. From Jan 12 to Feb 12, ND plays @ L'ville, @ Syr, vs. UCONN, vs. Marquette, @ Pitt, @ Cincy, @ UCLA, vs. L'ville. As of today, ND is 3-1 in conference; if ND can go 4-3 in this stretch (4-4 overall) and 5-2 to close out the conference season, 11-7 in conference could be good enough to get ND a top 4 seed in the Big East tourney and a bye for the conference tournament.

Prediction: ND will not be able to have the same success against the teams in the bottom of the conference that they did last year. The Irish will drop a disappointing game @ Providence or vs. Villanova towards the end of the season and finish 10-8 in conference as the 6 or 7 seed in the Big East, go 1-1 in the Big East tourney, get a 5 seed in the NCAA's, and go to the sweet 16 but lose to the 1 seed.