Baby Blog and Election Handicapping

1. Since the world of blogging has become so pervasive (as evidenced by the fact that I am now doing it), I have attached a link from Lucy Perry, who will be born next Wednesday. Lucy is the daughter of Lou and Molly Perry. (Lou was a grad student that lived in our dorm at ND.) I realize that this is not a strictly sports-related blog, but it may be interesting to some of our devoted readers and it does include some football pics. Enjoy.
http://www.lucyperryblog.blogspot.com/

2. Now that unborns can blog, do we need to call into question our national view on the A-word? (I know it's a discussion for another kind of blog, but how about that for a segue into political commentary?) Anyway, who is setting odds for the election on Tuesday? (Touching my nose.) My suggestion to keep it interesting would be to set over-unders for certain states as to when they are awarded. I just love having a reason to drink on Tuesday nights...

When did we become a gambling blog?

I really wanted to do a MAC game, but there is only one conference game this weekend with a total of three MAC conference games on national TV next Tuesday/Wednesday. But we can't have a playoff because of missed classes?

I don't care what the Tuesday night line is, take Buffalo and give the points to Miami.

Also, I really want to bet on SC, but that line opened at 43 and continues to go up (44.5 right now)

Here are my picks, remember all of them are with play money since I work in college sports and that gambling is illegal:

Missouri (-20) at Baylor -- Baylor cannot score that many points.

West Virginia (-4) at Connecticut -- West Virginia dumptrucks Connecticut every year

Auburn (+6.5) at Mississippi -- A loss by Auburn and they have five losses with Georgia and Alabama still on the schedule. That makes bowling difficult.

Tulsa (-7) at Arkansas -- Arkansas cannot keep up with Tulsa's offense

Bonus NFL Parlay
Minnesota (-4.5) vs. Houston
Denver (-3) vs. Miami
Indianapolis (-6) vs. New England

And Bill, you are already 0-for-1

Bill beats me to the punch

Here's what I like this weekend/early next week (lines courtesy of Bodog, and yes, they are all real):

Boise - 21 vs. NM St.

NM St. lost to Idaho. Do I need to say more?

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Wisconsin.

Javon Ringer cannot be stopped. Sparty wins this by at least a TD.

TCU -14 vs. UNLV.

I love the Rebs, but will they even score against TCU's D? Randall Cunningham isn't walking through that door Rebel fans.

Maurice Green to win Dancing W/ The Stars @ 7-1.

Mo's fast, powerful feet are an asset. Add in the fact that I know him and he taught my bro how to run, and it's unbeatable.

Arizona -3 vs. StL.

Kurt Warner has Boldin back. How do they not win this by 14?

Obama winning popular vote in Montana +240.

Don't know where it's coming from, but Realclearpolitics has McCain up by 2.0 on average with Obama winning in one poll. Many Montana voters will likely go to the polls in the Best Time Zone (Mountain) with news reports of Obama's eastern victories on their mind, leading to the bandwagon effect kicking in. Everyone wants to vote for a winner.

Parlays

College - Indiana -3, MSU -4, ND -5, LSU -25.5, TCU -14
NFL - HOU +4.5, BAL +1.5, AZ -3, PHI -7

Monday's Gossip Girl will rock.

Not an actual line, but it's a given at this point. Too bad there's no line.

49ers special - Coach Singletary keeps his pants on this week -1000.

He can't do it two weeks in a row can he?

Weekend Picks: October 30 - November 2

This will hopefully be the start of a new weekly entry about the incredibly fun, but somewhat degenerate world of gambling on college athletics.

The format will be simple. I'll make 4 or 5 game picks per week and then one ridiculous parlay/ teaser bet. I'll post the odds and the bet. Next week we'll have a post-mortem from the prior week and then the next week's picks.

As long as the money lasts, we'll try to keep going.

Please remember that this is for recreational purposes only.

Recap of Last Weekend
Before we get to this week, I'll give you a quick recap of last weekend, which was a great one and has sparked my interest once again.

I took 4 games and went 4 for 4:

- Boise -7 at San Jose St - Actual result: BSU 33, SJSU 16 - WIN
Editorial Note: Boise State refuses to not cover.

- ND -10.5 at Washington - Actual result: ND 33, UW 7 - WIN
Editorial Note: The Irish have been significantly better ATS this year after a poor 2006 and 2007.

- MSU - 4 at Michigan - Actual result: MSU 35, Michigan 21 - WIN
Editorial Note: Michigan sucks.

- Oklahoma State +12.5 at Texas - Actual result: OSU 24, Texas 28
Editorial Note: I almost was going to pick OSU straight up, but held back.

This Week - 4 Games and a Big Parlay:
- South Florida -3 at Cincinnati - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: I love the Thursday night games. Cincy looked real bad against Connecticut last week. Brian Kelly is not the genius he was last year.

- Navy -7.5 vs. Temple - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Navy didn't throw a pass last week in route to stomping SMU. I expect the same versus Temple. This line has since moved to -7 (see below), so that sucks.

- Boise -20.5 vs. New Mexico State - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorial Note: Boise always seems to cover big spreads. I like any team that is playing purely for style points and trying to impress voters. Beating NMSU by less than 20 could cost Boise points in the polls.

- Georgia +5.5 vs. Florida - The Wager is 20 to win 18.18.
Editorical Note: Finally, I'm picking a REAL game. I like Georgia's defense in this matchup. The higher ranked team is the underdog and the game is at a neutral site. Florida's offense has put up big numbers on offense in their last 3 games, but I like the way Georgia's defense has played lately. I can envision Tebow and Company struggling, while Stafford and Moreno are able to move the ball.

- Fun Pick of the Week - 8 Game Parlay - 150 to 1 payout if we hit all 8
Oklahoma St -31 vs. Iowa St
Kansas -11 vs. Kansas St.
Missouri -20 at Baylor
Nebraska +22 at Oklahoma
ND -4.5 vs. Pitt
SFlorida -3 at Cincinnati
Navy -7 vs. Temple
Texas Tech +4 vs. Texas

Check back next week for the results.

Rams send tape to NFL over what they believe are missed calls

Ok I've been trying to get a word in edgewise on an ESPN blog about this headline I read (see above) but there's actually TOO MANY people talking to get meaningful constructive dialogue. I have my own comments to this, but I will reserve them for the time being. What does everyone think of this? Here's the article quote from ESPN.com;

"The New England Patriots were assessed zero penalty yards in their win over the St. Louis Rams on Sunday -- and the Rams want to know why. The Rams are sending a videotape to the NFL's offices, highlighting plays the team believes should have resulted in penalties against the Patriots on Sunday, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported. 'Never ever, ever, ever played a perfect team before,' Rams guard Richie Incognito said about the disparity, according to the report. 'That's all I am going to s ...'"

Derek

Willingham Out at Washington

SEATTLE (AP) — Washington coach Tyrone Willingham says he will step down at the end of the 2008 season.

The Huskies fell to 0-7 on Saturday after a 33-7 loss to Notre Dame. Willingham and athletic director Scott Woodward made the announcement at a news conference Monday.

Willingham has been under fire for being unable to turn around the Washington program. He is 11-32 overall in his four seasons. Washington currently has a nine-game losing streak dating back to last season, tied with North Texas for the longest in the country among major schools.

Woodward has said he did not want to change coaches during the season. But he said Monday's announcement ends speculation of what is going to happen and lets the team focus on the final five games.

Big XII vs SEC (cont)

So everyone has their opinions on who is the better conference - SEC or Big XII.  There's only been one inter-conference match up and Texas soundly defeated Arkansas 52-10 (which is hardly a good judgement of how the conferences would stack up since you take the best from one against the worst from the other).  That being said, I'm going to throw out there (in my view) the top six potential match ups pitting a Big XII team against an SEC opponent.  I'm going to give each game a neutral location so home field advantage doesn't come into play.

1. Texas v Alabama - Texas: The Longhorns are rolling right now and Colt McCoy is putting up some amazing numbers against top 10 teams.  Alabama has talent, but they're still young and not going to be able to keep up, Texas is putting up on average 45 ppg and giving up 18, that's a lot of ground for Alabama to make up.
2. Oklahoma v Georgia - Georgia: Georgia can put up points and Oklahoma is having a hard time stopping anybody.  Fortunately for Boomer Sooner, Sam Bradford has the offense clicking so OU can get out to an early lead and boat race the opposition.  I realize it's a hard sell since Alabama destroyed Georgia between the hedges of Sanford Stadium, but in the long run I think Georgia is the best team in the SEC this year.
   
3. Texas Tech v Florida - Texas Tech: The Gators have woken up the past two weeks but Mike Leach is actually running the ball and the Red Raiders are dominating.
   
4. Oklahoma State v LSU - Oklahoma State: The best that LSU has on their resume right now is beating an inept Auburn team and getting blown out at home by Georgia and on the road by Florida.  Okie State won on the road against Missouri and played Texas tight - OSU gets the edge for being competitive in big games this year.
   
5. Missouri v Vanderbilt - Missouri: This is where the depth of the Big XII comes into play, good luck Vanderbilt, they might stay within 30 of Mizzou.
   
6. Kansas v Kentucky - Kansas: Kentucky doesn't have a defense like the top part of the SEC to stop Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp.  KU's defense hasn't look great against Oklahoma or TTU but it's a lock they'll score more points than the Wildcats.

Across the whole conference the Big XII is putting up on average 36+ points and 442 ypg with average scoring defense of 25ppg.  The SEC is scoring 25ppg with 345 yards and posting an average scoring defense of just under 20ppg.  Basically, conference to conference the SEC will have a hard time keeping up with the Big XII head to head and the depth of the Big XII will win out if there was a showdown this year.