Big 10 (11) Fix

Alright, I'm tired of watching the Big 10 finish up two weeks early every year and sit back while every other school has rivalry games and conference championships.  While the Big 10 teams stay home and rest up, every other good team in the country is getting beat up and through attrition - helping those teams with a bye move up the rankings.  As long as we're going to have a BCS system instead of a playoff I think that the BCS conferences need to have title games.  The Pac-10 is an issue for another article, but largely it isn't worth having a title game out there right now because there's only one good team in the conference.  That being the case, let's focus on the Big 10.

For this scenario to have even a shred of credibility, (not saying there's much of a chance of that, but let's pretend) I think it's important to maintain as many traditional rivalries as possible.  That way when the conference is split up, there's not the concern that Michigan only plays Ohio State every three years.  Additionally, which we'll get into, there will be the need to add another team so everything may be divided up evenly.

Big 10 Rivalries

• Illinois: Indiana, Northwestern
  
• Indiana: Illinois, Purdue
  
• Iowa: Minnesota, Wisconsin
  
• Michigan: Michigan State, Ohio State
  
• Michigan State: Michigan, Penn State
  
• Minnesota: Iowa, Wisconsin
  
• Northwestern: Illinois, Purdue
  
• Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State
  
• Penn State: Michigan State, Ohio State
  
• Purdue: Indiana, Northwestern
  
• Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

Okay, so now what?  How can we start breaking this down?  Well based on rivalries the 11 teams fit into three main groups:

Group 1: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State

Group 2: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois

Group 3: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Right off the bat there's a problem - there's no easy split to get six and six while still maintaining these traditional rivalries.  I propose instead of the traditional approach that is done in the other BCS conferences that have championship games where the conference is divided into two groups of six that the Big 10 institute a pod system similar to how the CCHA balances out the hockey schedule.

Breaking down in pods, a team would be paired with a rival and this rival they would play automatically every year.  Providing you add one more team, you would have six pods.  Nine conference games would be easy enough to schedule in that you play your rival and then you play both teams in four of the five remaining pods that year.  You still have room for three non-conference games and then the pod that you do not play one year you rotate through and play the next year.  This means that teams in the Big 10 pod system would play every team aside from their rivals four out of every five years, which is pretty much how it all works out now.  Additionally the championship game would be #1 playing #2 at the end of the year and the advantage of this system is that you don't have a top team sitting out just like you do in the Big XII this year with Missouri playing for a BCS automatic berth instead of Texas or Texas Tech.

There are a number of different scenarios for pod breakdowns, each has pros and cons.
Pod 1 - Penn State/ Michigan State
Pod 2 - Michigan/ Ohio State
Pod 3 - Indiana/ Purdue
Pod 4 - Illinois/ Northwestern
Pod 5 - Wisconsin/ Minnesota
Pod 6 - Iowa/TBD

I kept Minnesota and Wisconsi together becase I like the rivalry and playing for a Slab of Bacon is just cool.  What to do about adding another team?  I'm sure a lot of people will say that Notre Dame is the obvious answer.  The Irish are independent in football and already play a strong Big 10 schedule every year.  As a Domer, I think it would be cool to see in addition to Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue each year a more consistent showing of Penn State and Ohio State.  The problem is, where do you put Notre Dame?  You can't really slide them in with Iowa, that doesn't make much sense.  If you put them in with Purdue or Penn State or Michigan or Michigan State, none of those teams have a strong rivalry with Iowa.  So if Notre Dame doesn't work, what are other schools that have a strong enough rivalry with these schools for football and would actually add to the conference.  Penn State has some of the better out of conference rivalries with Pittsburgh and West Virginia.  In the immediate time frame a frequent matchup of Michigan/ West Virginia would be interesting, but that's a temporary storyline.  Additionally you still have the problem that if you add in one of those teams, then you end up putting Michigan State with Iowa, which isn't a great scenario.  Plus you'd have to find another team to fill in for the Big East (Marshall?).

So where do we go now?  Back to Iowa, and finding a team to plug in with Iowa.  I propose move Iowa State out of the Big XII and into the Big 10.  In order to fill the void in the Big XII add TCU which should be able to be competitive (probably more so than Iowa State or Baylor).  There are a few extra moving parts here but it accomplishes four things: 1) traditional rivalries are maintained 2) the Big 10 will have a championship game which will be more equitable in selecting the Rose Bowl berth and the top teams won't have the chance to creep into the BCS by being idle 3) the Big 10 will finally be forced to find an accurate name for their conference and not try and hide an 11 (or in this case 12) in the design.  The Big XII used to be the Big 8 and they managed to learn to count accurately, it's not that hard.

Let's go Bruins, and bold BCS predictions.

Not only does USC's "we can give up 2 timeouts to wear whatever f-ing color uni we want" gimmick upset me greatly, I am terrified of what is going to happen when USC wins this game. I don't think I can take ANOTHER blowout loss to Oregon State in a bowl game, which is where this is headed. If USC loses, Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl, but if USC wins, Oregon State is likely in the Sun Bowl kicking our asses. Sweet.

Because I don't trust the BCS computers to do what everyone thinks they will (when have they?), here are my BCS predictions:

Rose Bowl - PSU vs. USC - easy to predict this one

Orange Bowl - Cincy vs. ACC - does anyone care who wins the ACC? Will anyone watch this game unless every other channel is showing infomercials? If I'm the Orange Bowl, I'm booking Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake for halftime just so people will watch at least part of the game.

Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Utah - wait for it...

Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. Alabama - what?... I trust that the Fiesta Bowl will realize that Boise is rated higher in the BCS than Ohio State and that all Americans outside of Ohio are tired of watching Ohio State lose by 40 in BCS games.

Championship - Oklahoma vs. Texas

Here's how I see it: Oklahoma and Florida both win, but since Texas is already #2 in the computers and Florida can only make up ground in the USA Today poll since Oklahoma would go to #1 in the Harris and Florida is already #2, Florida can't make up enough BCS ground to overtake Texas in the standings. Obviously everyone would bitch, but if people want a playoff to ever happen, this is the scenario everyone should cheer for.

ND Football - Next 9 Months

Overall, I'm OK with Weis coming back. His career has been well documented as a failure thus far, but I hate coaching searches and this program does not need another one. However, changes need to be made.

Here is the formula for what I think needs to happen in the next 9 months to get this program on track:

- Win a F****** Bowl Game - I don't care which one, just win and end the streak. This will make everyone feel a heck of a lot better about this program.

- Close out the recruiting class - Currently #8 on Rivals. Hold onto the stars (Wood, Shaq, Watt) and fill out with more depth on the lines.

- Fire Haywood, Latina & Powlus - The offense needed an overhaul last spring and better get one this time around.

- Hire a Real, Experienced Offensive Coordinator, O-Line Coach and QB Coach - Weis needs to cut the cord here and bring in an entirely new system on offense. Keep it in the pro-style model so it fits our talent, but bring in an experienced coordinator who will have complete autonomy over his own system, including play calling. Keep it simple and focus on running the ball and fundamentals. Don't know if it will happen, but this is the most important thing. Swarbrick needs to push this onto Charlie as a condition for keeping his job.

- Put Heat on Clausen in Bowl/ Spring Practice - I'm not saying open up a controversy, but Crist needs to start pushing Jimmy and Weis needs to yank him when he's not getting the job done. Clausen should have been given a seat at some point during the USC game for Sharpley. Clausen's regression since North Carolina has been one of the most disturbing trends of this season.

During the summer, I'll re-visit this list to see how we're doing.

ND Expectations 2009

As a follow-up to Bernie's post regarding Weis staying in South Bend - now is as good a time as any to start the "expectations talk."

"Though this past season fell short of the expectations that all of us have for our football program, I am confident that Charlie has a strong foundation in place for future success and that the best course of action is to move forward under his leadership," athletic director Jack Swarbrick said in a statement released by the university Wednesday.

That being said, what are expectations for next year? Does that start with winning the bowl game this year? I'm thinking win the bowl game, at least eight wins next season and being competitive against USC.  He can't afford an opening loss at home against Nevada and hopefully the extra practices for the bowl help out.  It also doesn't seem like Clausen is progressing the last half of this season, he needs competition from Crist and I think it would be good for Charlie to open that competition up in spring ball.  (Basically, no matter how much Clausen forces throws and makes bad choices, Sharpley isn't going to replace him as starter.)

This has potential to be a light schedule looking at the performance of a few of these teams (Michigan, Purdue, Washington, Washington State).  Combined record as of now for these teams is 71-69.  However, ND hasn't been great on beating good teams the past few years and seven of the 12 will have winning records with USC, Michigan State, and BC already at or over nine wins on the season, Pitt likely to join them as well as Navy if they beat Army and win their bowl.  Losing to four of the five (and almost five of five) this year seems to leave little room for error navigating the schedule next year.

2009 Notre Dame Football Schedule

Sept. 5 NEVADA

Sept. 12 at Michigan

Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE

Sept. 26 at Purdue

Oct. 3 WASHINGTON

Oct. 10 Open Date

Oct. 17 USC

Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE

Oct. 31 vs. Washington State (at San Antonio, Texas)

Nov. 7 NAVY

Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh

Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT

Nov. 28 at Stanford

Tuberville out at Auburn?

Rumors are swirling that Tommy Tuberville is getting canned by the Auburn AD.

I'd say that A&M should try to hire him as our defensive coordinator but these SEC coaches don't seem to be able to figure out how to stop the spread offense.

Weis to Return

Per Irish Eyes, which is very reliable, Charlie Weis will return for the 2009 season.

Points of interest:

1. This makes my coaching candidates article worthless.
2. Plenty of time to discuss what changes need to be made by Weis
3. The news broke for the Willingham firing around 12:50 pm on the Tuesday after the SC game. The news broke for Weis returning around 5:50 pm on the Tuesday after the SC game. I don't think there will be celebratory drinking as in 2004 and I won't be working for 15 consecutive hours.

Summary of potential ND coaching candidates

With the firing of Weis the second biggest story in college football, I thought we need to go through the coaching candidates. I was leaning toward Butch Davis, as I said in some text messages early Sunday morning, but now I’m not so sure. Nevertheless, here we go:

The College Pipe Dream
The Professional Pipe Dream
Random College Coaches Who Aren't Coming to ND
Realistic College Coaches
Water-Cooler Candidate
Summary

The College Pipedream — Urban Meyer

Some Notre Dame faithful think every coach in the country will drop what he’s built and come to South Bend. That’s not the case. If you ask the delusional fans they would throw Stoops and Saban into the mix, but Meyer is the most realistic candidate.

Meyer’s connection starts from his birth, being named after a pope. He was an assistant under Lou Holtz and reportedly still talks to him. Former Notre Dame AD Kevin White had his very public trip to Utah the Thursday night after Willingham’s firing on Tuesday. Since White wasn’t prepared for Willingham’s dismissal, Jeremy Foley beat him to Meyer. The Florida AD had been laying the groundwork for Meyer since firing Ron Zook weeks earlier.

Meyer has an affinity for Notre Dame. I don’t know if it’s in this contract, but in his Utah contract, the three dream jobs were Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State. His buyout is only $500,000. Stories are being leaked that he’s bored at Florida. His family wasn’t ready for the move in 2004 and now with the children older, they aren’t opposed to South Bend. One Internet rumor is that he wasn’t sure if he could handle the job, so he wanted to gain top-flight experience at Florida before coming to Notre Dame. See, it’s easy to convince yourself that Meyer is realistic.

A major drawback would be that Meyer “gets bored” at places, since Notre Dame would be his fourth job in eight years. If he did come to Notre Dame, his ego gives Meyer two options – stay 10 years and become a legend synonymous with Rockne, Leahy, Parseghian and Holtz, or win a national title and go to the NFL.

The real question with Meyer – does ND want to hire a coach who made them look bad (at least publically) in 2004. Back to Top

The Professional Pipedream — Jon Gruden

There’s always a connection from ND to the professional ranks and in each of the last two coaching searches, an ND coach has been involved. In 2001, Gruden was that coach and in 2004 it was Mike Shanahan, who is still a darkhorse candidate. This is pure sausage, but maybe Tom Coughlin would be that candidate this time, but I don’t think ND could wait that long. Some people have even said Bill Cowher. I don’t know if these people think.

I didn’t follow the Internet rumors that much in 2001, but it appears that Gruden was all but the choice to replace Bob Davie. I’ve read that former Notre Dame president Edward Malloy wasn’t a fan of Gruden and Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis wasn’t too keen on losing his star coach for no compensation.

Gruden grew up in South Bend as his dad was an assistant under Dan Devine. His alarm was the Notre Dame Victory March. I have a quote from him in my Facebook profile, talking about the goosebumps he gets when seeing ND on television.

Hiring Gruden would be following down a similar path to the Weis hiring – a professional coach who hasn’t coached in college. However, Gruden has been a successful head coach at the highest level. His enthusiasm should translate over to the college game. But once again, a pipe dream, especially since he had no interest in the Tennessee job, where he had a number of connections (former coach there, wife’s alma mater). Back to Top

College Coaches Who Will Hang Up and Laugh When We Call or Coaches I Don’t Want But Will See Their Names Thrown Into the Mix:

Mark Richt – Has one of the top jobs in the SEC, gets paid very well. However, his team this year was preseason number one and lost every single toss-up game.

Jeff Tedford — This might be the most realistic name in this grouping. Cal is never going to be a consistent top-10 power. He made a run in 2004, getting as high as number four in the country. Never gets thrown into coaching searches.

Kirk Ferentz — He turned around Iowa’s season and had a signature win, defeating Penn State. The legal troubles for the Hawkeyes aren’t going to help him.

Tom O’Brien — Seriously?

Gary Pinkel — Ever wonder why his teams can’t beat Texas or Oklahoma? Bad offensive line play.

Mike Bellotti – See Jeff Tedford (except for the academic restrictions).

Mike Leach – Gimmick offense that can’t run the ball

Paul Johnson – It might be a gimmick offense, but he runs the ball. GT outrushed UGA 201-1 in the third quarter. ND has rushed for more than 201 yards in a game twice this season — Navy and Washington. If this article was to replace a successful Charlie Weis in 2015, Johnson would be a good name. Back to Top

Realistic College Coaches Not Named Brian Kelly:

Butch Davis — I was really sold on him 24 hours ago. He completely turned around the Miami program when it actually was on probation. He never won a national title (did get screwed in 2000), but laid the groundwork for the 2001 title run and late PI-call that prevented a repeat title in 2002. Davis has turned around North Carolina quickly.

Then I did some more thinking. He did win in a crappy Big East. He’s had questionable losses, including this season. I do realize all coaches have bad losses (look at Holtz and Stanford). This year, his team lost by THIRTY-ONE points to NC State, a school that could be considered a rival. Oh yeah, he was the coach of the Cleveland Browns and quit on his team with about a half-dozen games left in the 2004 season.

This might be the best “big-name,” realistic candidate out there. What scares me a little is we don’t know of any connection to Notre Dame. There are comparisons to Holtz (failed in the NFL, successful at couple of BCS colleges), but Holtz had the Notre Dame clause in his contract.

Mark D’Antonio – He’s turning around Michigan State. However, the program continues to collapse late in the season, although not to the degree that we saw under John L. Smith. He’s assembling talent and turned Javon Ringer into one of the top five running backs in the country.

It’s not a homerun hire and the fanbase wouldn’t be excited at all. Although some of the more knowledgeable fans might be optimistic. Ironically, the hottest name on the list replaced this candidate after D’Antonio left Cincinnati for Michigan State.

Chris Petersen – I include Petersen in this list because I wouldn’t be disappointed if he became ND’s coach. He has been incredibly successful at Boise State. He won a BCS bowl against one of the top coaches in the country. The only problem is there really isn’t any connection, other than Chuck Anthony. I actually think he’s a great fit at Washington. Back to Top

The Water Cooler Candidate — Brian Kelly

I gave Kelly this term because casual fans who like Notre Dame, people who hate Notre Dame or people who will see the story on ESPN (because ND is irrelevant), will hear this name. I guarantee someone in our athletic department will specifically ask me about this name.

He won at a lower level — two Division II national titles at Grand Valley State, which makes a slight connection to Jim Tressel’s success at Youngstown State. Kelly stayed in state and made improvements at Central Michigan (4-7, 6-5, 9-4) and the Chippewas are a solid program in the MAC right now. He’s also winning at Cincinnati, at a much higher success rate than D’Antonio. He’s 2-0 in bowl games and is going to the BCS this year, with a chance to defeat the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl.

I’m a little scared about his ability to hire a big-time coaching staff. His offensive coordinator has been with him for 17 seasons, mainly as an offensive line coach. We’ve seen the importance of assistant coaches in developing fundamentals with college players.

However, he’s won at every level. He could be a home run or he could be three to five years of the same thing Notre Dame has experienced since Holtz left in 1996. Back to Top

Summary

Notre Dame has three options:

• Keep Charlie Weis — I'm not totally opposed to this as he's the face of the program and we would be making our third coaching change in eight years. The talent is there. Obviously, changes to the assistants would be imperative, but we'll cross that bridge later.
  
  
• Hire a Big-Time Name — That's where you get Meyer or Gruden. Granted we don't know if Gruden will succeed at the college level, but his head coaching track record is better than Weis. If Meyer doesn't succeed at ND, then we might as well become an Ivy League program. Davis isn't in the same category as Meyer, but he did build a program that won 34 consecutive games and was a national-title contender in three consecutive years.
  
  
• Find the next Urban Meyer — Florida hit the jackpot in 2004 and couldn't have asked for better results from Meyer. If ND is able to find that next big-name coach (Stoops, Tressel, Meyer), who can return the program to its level from 1988-93, then the faithful will be happy. This is where Kelly, Petersen and D'Antonio would fit.
  

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