Roll through Kyle Field

Understandably so, there's a lot of hype built up over the A&M/Alabama game this weekend.  CBS is going to have one camera designated for Johnny Football - which seems a bit over the top, but on the bright side all of us watching the game will get to see his celebrations in stunning HD.

I'm still not sold on how good A&M is this year - they haven't played anyone yet, but they did look really good doing it (defensively speaking...59 points to Rice and SHSU is a red flag).  Alabama is fitting the model of "reloading not rebuilding" but losing three offensive linemen and a tight end to the NFL draft is hard to reload just a few games into the season.  Alabama didn't look great against VT, and two return touchdowns padded the scoreline.  In terms of matchups/keys for this game, there will be the Alabama rebuilt offensive line against a porous front seven for A&M that gave up 240 yards rushing to SHSU - but the biggest match up to me is Manziel vs. Saban.

With A&M's surprising win in Tuscaloosa last year left Nick Saban looking for answers. Nearly ten months in the making for this rematch I've wondered what a coach of Saban's capabilities with the talent he has on his team can do to game plan for Manziel.  Saban has a 7-1 record against the same opponent following a loss and his margin of victory in those rematch games is almost 21 points. On top of that, Alabama is coming off a bye-week, and I know full well what Saban is capable of with time and planning. 

I hate to admit this, because I don't want to feel like I'm enabling A&M fans, but game plans go out the window when Manziel goes Comanche.  If you watch the Heisman highlight from the Alabama game last year, Alabama had good coverage on the receivers in the end zone until Manziel started creating chaos and distracted the defensive back - allowing his receiver to drift away from coverage.  As distracting as Manziel can be to defenders on the field, it seems like his off the field drama is a distraction to himself and his team.

I'm going to side with history - and first hand experience - over chaos and pick Alabama by seven for the win on Saturday.
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Big XII vs SEC (cont)

So everyone has their opinions on who is the better conference - SEC or Big XII.  There's only been one inter-conference match up and Texas soundly defeated Arkansas 52-10 (which is hardly a good judgement of how the conferences would stack up since you take the best from one against the worst from the other).  That being said, I'm going to throw out there (in my view) the top six potential match ups pitting a Big XII team against an SEC opponent.  I'm going to give each game a neutral location so home field advantage doesn't come into play.

1. Texas v Alabama - Texas: The Longhorns are rolling right now and Colt McCoy is putting up some amazing numbers against top 10 teams.  Alabama has talent, but they're still young and not going to be able to keep up, Texas is putting up on average 45 ppg and giving up 18, that's a lot of ground for Alabama to make up.
2. Oklahoma v Georgia - Georgia: Georgia can put up points and Oklahoma is having a hard time stopping anybody.  Fortunately for Boomer Sooner, Sam Bradford has the offense clicking so OU can get out to an early lead and boat race the opposition.  I realize it's a hard sell since Alabama destroyed Georgia between the hedges of Sanford Stadium, but in the long run I think Georgia is the best team in the SEC this year.
   
3. Texas Tech v Florida - Texas Tech: The Gators have woken up the past two weeks but Mike Leach is actually running the ball and the Red Raiders are dominating.
   
4. Oklahoma State v LSU - Oklahoma State: The best that LSU has on their resume right now is beating an inept Auburn team and getting blown out at home by Georgia and on the road by Florida.  Okie State won on the road against Missouri and played Texas tight - OSU gets the edge for being competitive in big games this year.
   
5. Missouri v Vanderbilt - Missouri: This is where the depth of the Big XII comes into play, good luck Vanderbilt, they might stay within 30 of Mizzou.
   
6. Kansas v Kentucky - Kansas: Kentucky doesn't have a defense like the top part of the SEC to stop Todd Reesing, Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Jake Sharp.  KU's defense hasn't look great against Oklahoma or TTU but it's a lock they'll score more points than the Wildcats.

Across the whole conference the Big XII is putting up on average 36+ points and 442 ypg with average scoring defense of 25ppg.  The SEC is scoring 25ppg with 345 yards and posting an average scoring defense of just under 20ppg.  Basically, conference to conference the SEC will have a hard time keeping up with the Big XII head to head and the depth of the Big XII will win out if there was a showdown this year.